Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Smoking

Projected smoking trend (2005-2020) (Line)
X	Y
2004	18
2005	17.59
2006	17.2
2007	16.7
2008	16.3
2009	15.9
2010	15.4
2011	15
2012	14.6
2013	14.2
2014	13.8
2015	13.4
2016	13.1
2017	12.7
2018	12.4
2019	12
2020	11.7
Healthy People 2010 goal met ⁽²⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	18
2005	16.9
2006	15.8
2007	14.7
2008	13.7
2009	12.8
2010	11.89
2011	11.6
2012	11.2
2013	10.9
2014	10.5
2015	10.19
2016	9.9
2017	9.6
2018	9.3
2019	9
2020	8.79
Optimistic but realistic goal ⁽²⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	18
2005	15.7
2006	13.7
2007	11.89
2008	10.5
2009	9.19
2010	8.1
2011	7.9
2012	7.8
2013	7.6
2014	7.5
2015	7.3
2016	7.19
2017	7.1
2018	6.9
2019	6.8
2020	6.7
Smoking trend (1970-2004) (Line)
X	Y
1970	34.5
1971	34.1
1972	33.7
1973	33.3
1974	32.9
1975	32.5
1976	32.1
1977	31.6
1978	31.2
1979	30.7
1980	30.2
1981	29.6
1982	28.99
1983	28.4
1984	27.8
1985	27.3
1986	26.8
1987	26.3
1988	25.8
1989	25.3
1990	24.8
1991	24.3
1992	23.79
1993	23.3
1994	22.8
1995	22.3
1996	21.9
1997	21.4
1998	20.9
1999	20.39
2000	19.9
2001	19.4
2002	19
2003	18.5
2004	18
2005	17.59
2006	17.2
2007	16.7
2008	16.3
2009	15.9
2010	15.4
2011	15
2012	14.6
2013	14.2
2014	13.8
2015	13.4
2016	13.1
2017	12.7
2018	12.4
2019	12
2020	11.7
NHANES data (Scatter)
X	Scale label
1973	34.1%
1978	33.6%
1989	27.6%
1993	24.6%
1999	20.3%
2001	20.5%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
X	Scale label
2010	12%

Footnotes:

(1) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-34y, 34-44y, 45-64y, 65-74y.

(2) Smoking rates assumed to decline after the year 2010 based on the projected smoking trend for 2010-2020.