Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Smoking

Projected smoking trend (2005-2020) (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.4
2005	28
2006	26.7
2007	25.3
2008	24
2009	22.7
2010	21.5
2011	20.3
2012	19.1
2013	18
2014	16.9
2015	15.9
2016	14.89
2017	14
2018	13.1
2019	12.3
2020	11.5
Healthy People 2010 goal met ⁽²⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.38
2005	25.11
2006	21.47
2007	18.36
2008	15.73
2009	13.48
2010	11.75
2011	11.14
2012	10.58
2013	10.05
2014	9.6
2015	9.19
2016	8.76
2017	8.35
2018	7.96
2019	7.6
2020	7.3
Optimistic but realistic goal ⁽²⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.4
2005	26.4
2006	23.6
2007	21.1
2008	18.89
2009	16.9
2010	15.1
2011	14.49
2012	13.9
2013	13.3
2014	12.7
2015	12.2
2016	11.6
2017	11
2018	10.5
2019	10
2020	9.5
Smoking trend (1970-2004) (Line)
X	Y
1970	54.9
1971	55
1972	55
1973	55
1974	55
1975	55
1976	54.9
1977	54.8
1978	54.6
1979	54.4
1980	54.1
1981	53.7
1982	53.2
1983	52.7
1984	52.1
1985	51.4
1986	50.7
1987	49.9
1988	49.1
1989	48.2
1990	47.2
1991	46.2
1992	45.1
1993	43.9
1994	42.7
1995	41.5
1996	40.2
1997	38.9
1998	37.6
1999	36.29
2000	34.9
2001	33.5
2002	32.1
2003	30.8
2004	29.4
NHANES data (Scatter)
X	Scale label
1973	54.6%
1978	50.3%
1989	44.8%
1993	42.5%
1999	30.2%
2001	30.6%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
X	Scale label
2010	12%

Footnotes:

(1) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-34y, 34-44y, 45-64y, 65-74y.

(2) Smoking rates assumed to decline after the year 2010 based on the projected smoking trend for 2010-2020.