Introduction
While lung cancer incidence and mortality rates have been decreasing slightly
since 1992 (by about 1.8 percent and 0.6 percent per year for men and women respectively),
lung cancer remains a serious threat to public health. Exposure to tobacco smoke
is by far the most important risk factor for lung cancer, with an estimated 87
percent of lung cancer deaths attributable to smoking. Other risk factors include
exposure to second-hand smoke, radon, and asbestos. Genetic susceptibility to
cancer and poor diet may also be risk factors for lung cancer.
About the Lung Base Cases
All members of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)
for lung cancer are collaborating on a set of common simulations to gain insight
in similarities and differences between the models. The first of these common
simulations seeks to quantify the effect of national trends in cigarette smoking
on lung cancer incidence and mortality over the period 1975-2000.
A subset of the CISNET lung grantees, along with two CISNET Lung affiliate members,
are also attempting to model various screening modalities. A first step in this
approach is to apply the models to data obtained from the Mayo Lung Project (MLP),
a randomized clinical trial carried out to investigate the efficacy of chest
X-ray screening for lung cancer. Insights gleaned from the analysis of the MLP
will be incorporated into subsequent modeling of more advanced screening techniques
such as Helical Scan Low-Dose Computed Tomography (“spiral CT”). | 
