Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Obese⁽¹⁾

Projected obesity trend (2005-2020) (Line)
X	Y
2004	30.6
2005	31.1
2006	31.7
2007	32.2
2008	32.7
2009	33.2
2010	33.5
2011	34
2012	34.4
2013	34.9
2014	35.29
2015	35.5
2016	36
2017	36.29
2018	36.6
2019	36.79
2020	37.1
Healthy People 2010 goal met ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	30.6
2005	27.4
2006	24.5
2007	21.8
2008	19.2
2009	16.8
2010	14.6
2011	14.49
2012	14.3
2013	14.09
2014	14
2015	13.8
2016	13.6
2017	13.3
2018	13.1
2019	12.8
2020	12.5
Optimistic but realistic goal ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	30.6
2005	30.5
2006	30.3
2007	30.1
2008	30
2009	29.79
2010	29.5
2011	29.29
2012	29.1
2013	28.79
2014	28.7
2015	28.49
2016	28.29
2017	28
2018	27.9
2019	27.6
2020	27.4
Obesity trend (1970-2004) (Line)
X	Y
1970	8.2
1971	8.69
1972	9.4
1973	10.1
1974	10.7
1975	11.4
1976	12.1
1977	12.8
1978	13.5
1979	14.09
1980	14.8
1981	15.6
1982	16.3
1983	17.1
1984	17.89
1985	18.6
1986	19.4
1987	20
1988	20.7
1989	21.6
1990	22.3
1991	22.8
1992	23.5
1993	24.2
1994	24.8
1995	25.4
1996	25.9
1997	26.5
1998	27.1
1999	27.6
2000	28.19
2001	28.79
2002	29.4
2003	30
2004	30.6
NHANES data (Scatter)
X	Scale label
1973	12.3%
1978	12.9%
1989	20.1%
1993	24.4%
1999	28.79%
2001	29.5%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
X	Scale label
2010	15%

Footnotes:

(1) Obese defined as body mass index 30+ kg/m%u00B2.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-39y, 40-59y, 60-74y.

(3) Age-specific trends applied after the year 2010 (no period trends).