Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Obese⁽¹⁾

Projected obesity trend (2005-2020) (Line)
X	Y
2004	38.4
2005	39.5
2006	40.6
2007	41.7
2008	42.6
2009	43.7
2010	44.7
2011	45.7
2012	46.7
2013	47.59
2014	48.6
2015	49.3
2016	50.2
2017	51
2018	51.7
2019	52.3
2020	53
Healthy People 2010 goal met ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	38.4
2005	33.7
2006	29.1
2007	24.8
2008	21.1
2009	18
2010	15.4
2011	15.6
2012	16
2013	16.3
2014	16.8
2015	17.39
2016	17.89
2017	18.5
2018	19.1
2019	19.7
2020	20.39
Optimistic but realistic goal ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	38.4
2005	38.9
2006	39.3
2007	39.8
2008	40.1
2009	40.6
2010	41
2011	41.4
2012	41.8
2013	42.3
2014	42.6
2015	43.1
2016	43.6
2017	43.9
2018	44.3
2019	44.7
2020	45
Obesity trend (1970-2004) (Line)
X	Y
1970	15.4
1971	15.6
1972	15.8
1973	16.1
1974	16.3
1975	16.6
1976	16.9
1977	17.2
1978	17.39
1979	18.09
1980	18.7
1981	19.3
1982	19.8
1983	20.2
1984	20.6
1985	21
1986	21.4
1987	21.8
1988	22.3
1989	22.9
1990	23.5
1991	24.4
1992	25.2
1993	26.3
1994	27.4
1995	28.29
1996	29.4
1997	30.6
1998	31.5
1999	32.5
2000	33.6
2001	34.79
2002	36
2003	37.2
2004	38.4
NHANES data (Scatter)
X	Scale label
1973	16.6%
1978	16.5%
1989	24.3%
1993	27.6%
1999	34.5%
2001	33.7%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
X	Scale label
2010	15%

Footnotes:

(1) Obese defined as body mass index 30+ kg/m%u00B2.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-39y, 40-59y, 60-74y.

(3) Age-specific trends applied after the year 2010 (no period trends).