Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Obese⁽¹⁾

Projected obesity trend (2005-2020) (Line)
X	Y
2004	56.3
2005	57.3
2006	58.4
2007	59.5
2008	60.5
2009	61.5
2010	62.4
2011	63.5
2012	64.5
2013	65.6
2014	66.5
2015	67.3
2016	68.3
2017	69.09
2018	69.8
2019	70.59
2020	71.3
Healthy People 2010 goal met ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	56.3
2005	47.4
2006	40.1
2007	33
2008	26.2
2009	20
2010	15.2
2011	15.4
2012	15.6
2013	15.9
2014	16.1
2015	16.4
2016	16.6
2017	16.7
2018	16.9
2019	17.1
2020	17.2
Optimistic but realistic goal ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	56.3
2005	56.59
2006	57.09
2007	57.4
2008	57.59
2009	57.7
2010	57.7
2011	57.99
2012	58.09
2013	58.2
2014	58.2
2015	58.2
2016	58.2
2017	57.99
2018	57.8
2019	57.49
2020	57.2
Obesity trend (1970-2004) (Line)
X	Y
1970	31.46
1971	31.65
1972	32.15
1973	32.56
1974	32.9
1975	33.15
1976	33.43
1977	33.75
1978	34.08
1979	34.38
1980	34.85
1981	35.17
1982	35.6
1983	35.98
1984	36.37
1985	36.96
1986	37.65
1987	38.39
1988	39.19
1989	40.06
1990	41.03
1991	42
1992	43.17
1993	44.18
1994	45.25
1995	46.31
1996	47.39
1997	48.59
1998	49.68
1999	50.79
2000	51.9
2001	53.06
2002	54.12
2003	55.2
2004	56.3
NHANES data (Scatter)
X	Scale label
1973	31.5%
1978	32.8%
1989	37.79%
1993	43.5%
1999	52.4%
2001	48.5%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
X	Scale label
2010	15%

Footnotes:

(1) Obese defined as body mass index 30+ kg/m%u00B2.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-39y, 40-59y, 60-74y.

(3) Age-specific trends applied after the year 2010 (no period trends).