Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Engaging in No Leisure-time Physical Activity(1)

White Males, Ages 25-74(2)

Projected no leisure-time physical activity trend (2005-2020) (Line)
XY
200436.29
200536.4
200636.5
200736.6
200836.7
200936.9
201037.1
201137.29
201237.4
201337.6
201437.7
201537.79
201638
201738.1
201838.2
201938.4
202038.5
Healthy People 2010 goal met (3) (Line)
XY
200436.29
200533.8
200631.3
200726.1
200822.2
200920.7
201020
201119.5
201219.4
201319.1
201418.8
201518.5
201618
201717.5
201817
201916.4
202015.8
Optimistic but realistic goal (3) (Line)
XY
200436.29
200535.5
200634.9
200734.1
200833.3
200932.6
201031.7
201131.2
201230.4
201329.79
201429.29
201528.79
201628
201727.5
201827
201926.4
202025.8
No leisure-time physical activity trend (1970-2004) (Line)
XY
197038.29
197138
197238
197337.79
197437.7
197537.5
197637.4
197737.2
197837.1
197937
198036.79
198136.7
198236.6
198336.5
198436.4
198536.29
198636.19
198736.19
198836.1
198936
199036
199136
199236
199336
199436
199536
199636
199736
199836
199936
200036
200136.1
200236.1
200336.19
200436.29
NHANES data (4) (Scatter)
XScale label
198938.29%
199337.79%
199949.4%
200144.7%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
XScale label
201020%

 

Footnotes:

(1) HP 2010 considers persons who never engage in light or moderate physical activity for 10-20 minutes to be inactive. The CISNET-Colon models measure physical activity in MET-hours per week. Using this measure, inactivity (i.e., no leisure-time physical activity) is defined as <0.7 MET-hours per week.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-34y, 34-44y, 45-64y, 65-74y.

(3) Age-specific trends applied after the year 2010 (no period trends).

(4) The questions in NHANES 1999-2001 regarding physical inactivity differ from those in NHANES III. Accordingly, the large increase in inactivity in 1999 and 2001 may not reflect a real trend.