Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Smoking

White Males, Ages 25-74(1)

Projected smoking trend (2005-2020) (Line)
XY
200420.5
200519.5
200618.5
200717.59
200816.6
200915.7
201014.8
201113.9
201213
201312.2
201411.4
201510.6
20169.9
20179.19
20188.5
20197.9
20207.19
Healthy People 2010 goal met (2) (Line)
XY
200420.5
200518.7
200617.1
200715.6
200814.2
200912.9
201011.7
201110.9
201210.19
20139.4
20148.69
20158.1
20167.5
20176.9
20186.3
20195.8
20205.3
Optimistic but realistic goal (2) (Line)
XY
200420.5
200517.59
200615.1
200713
200811.1
20099.4
20108
20117.6
20127.19
20136.8
20146.4
20156.1
20165.7
20175.4
20185
20194.7
20204.3
Smoking trend (1970-2004) (Line)
XY
197042.2
197141.9
197241.7
197341.5
197441.2
197541
197640.6
197740.3
197839.9
197939.5
198039
198138.5
198237.9
198337.4
198436.79
198536.19
198635.5
198734.9
198834.3
198933.6
199032.8
199132.1
199231.4
199330.6
199429.79
199528.9
199628.1
199727.2
199826.2
199925.3
200024.4
200123.4
200222.4
200321.4
200420.5
NHANES data (Scatter)
XScale label
197343.5%
197839.7%
198933.1%
199328.1%
199922.5%
200121.4%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
XScale label
201012%

 

Footnotes:

(1) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-34y, 34-44y, 45-64y, 65-74y.

(2) Smoking rates assumed to decline after the year 2010 based on the projected smoking trend for 2010-2020.