Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Obese⁽¹⁾

Projected obesity trend (2005-2020) (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.6
2005	30.1
2006	30.7
2007	31.3
2008	31.9
2009	32.5
2010	33.2
2011	34.1
2012	34.79
2013	35.6
2014	36.5
2015	37.29
2016	38.2
2017	39
2018	39.8
2019	40.69
2020	41.5
Healthy People 2010 goal met ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.6
2005	26.9
2006	24.31
2007	21.7
2008	19.37
2009	17.2
2010	15.36
2011	15.35
2012	15.43
2013	15.5
2014	15.57
2015	15.63
2016	15.61
2017	15.65
2018	15.69
2019	15.67
2020	15.65
Optimistic but realistic goal ⁽³⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	29.6
2005	29.6
2006	29.5
2007	29.5
2008	29.4
2009	29.4
2010	29.4
2011	29.4
2012	29.4
2013	29.5
2014	29.6
2015	29.7
2016	29.6
2017	29.6
2018	29.7
2019	29.7
2020	29.6
Obesity trend (1970-2004) (Line)
X	Y
1970	17.8
1971	18.09
1972	18.39
1973	18.8
1974	19
1975	19.2
1976	19.4
1977	19.6
1978	19.9
1979	20.1
1980	20.39
1981	20.6
1982	20.8
1983	21
1984	21.3
1985	21.6
1986	21.8
1987	22.1
1988	22.4
1989	22.7
1990	23
1991	23.3
1992	23.79
1993	24.2
1994	24.7
1995	25.1
1996	25.6
1997	26.1
1998	26.7
1999	27.2
2000	27.7
2001	28.1
2002	28.6
2003	29.1
2004	29.6
NHANES data (Scatter)
X	Scale label
1973	18.3%
1978	17.1%
1989	20%
1993	22.9%
1999	29.9%
2001	27.6%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
X	Scale label
2010	15%

Footnotes:

(1) Obese defined as body mass index 30+ kg/m%u00B2.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-39y, 40-59y, 60-74y.

(3) Age-specific trends applied after the year 2010 (no period trends).