Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Smoking

Projected smoking trend (2005-2020) (Line)
X	Y
2004	18.39
2005	17.89
2006	17.39
2007	16.9
2008	16.5
2009	16.1
2010	15.8
2011	15.6
2012	15.4
2013	15.2
2014	15
2015	14.7
2016	14.49
2017	14.3
2018	14
2019	13.8
2020	13.6
Healthy People 2010 goal met ⁽²⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	18.39
2005	17.29
2006	16.1
2007	15.1
2008	14.09
2009	13.1
2010	12.3
2011	12.1
2012	11.8
2013	11.6
2014	11.4
2015	11.3
2016	11.1
2017	10.9
2018	10.7
2019	10.5
2020	10.4
Optimistic but realistic goal ⁽²⁾ (Line)
X	Y
2004	18.39
2005	15.2
2006	13.2
2007	11.6
2008	10.3
2009	9.1
2010	8.2
2011	8.3
2012	8.3
2013	8.4
2014	8.4
2015	8.5
2016	8.5
2017	8.5
2018	8.5
2019	8.5
2020	8.5
Smoking trend (1970-2004) (Line)
X	Y
1970	46.64
1971	46.12
1972	45.56
1973	44.96
1974	44.34
1975	43.65
1976	42.98
1977	42.3
1978	41.6
1979	40.91
1980	40.21
1981	39.23
1982	38.27
1983	37.31
1984	36.36
1985	35.43
1986	34.53
1987	33.63
1988	32.76
1989	31.9
1990	31.06
1991	29.96
1992	28.8
1993	27.68
1994	26.62
1995	25.59
1996	24.6
1997	23.66
1998	22.76
1999	21.9
2000	21.04
2001	20.36
2002	19.71
2003	19.06
2004	18.39
NHANES data (Scatter)
X	Scale label
1973	46.3%
1978	32.1%
1989	32.2%
1993	26.8%
1999	19.9%
2001	19.7%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
X	Scale label
2010	12%

Footnotes:

(1) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-34y, 34-44y, 45-64y, 65-74y.

(2) Smoking rates assumed to decline after the year 2010 based on the projected smoking trend for 2010-2020.