Colorectal Cancer Mortality Projections

References and Data Sources

References

  1. Ayanian JZ, Zaslavsky AM, Fuchs CS, et al. Use of adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy for colorectal cancer in a population-based cohort. J Clin Oncol. 2003;21(7):1293-300.
  2. CISNET. Model Profiles. Available at https://cisnet.cancer.gov/profiles/.
  3. Collins JF, Lieberman DA, Durbin TE, Weiss DG. Accuracy of screening for fecal occult blood on a single stool sample obtained by digital rectal examination: a comparison with recommended sampling practice. Ann Intern Med. 2005;142(2):81-5.
  4. Cunningham D, Humblet Y, Siena S, Khavat D, Bleiberg H, Santoro A, Bets D, Mueser M, Harstrick A, Verslype C, Chau I, Van Cutsem E. Cetuximab monotherapy and cetuximab plus irinotecan in irinotecan-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer. N Engl J Med 2004;351:337-345.
  5. deGramont A, Banzi M, Navarro M, Tabernero J, Hickish T, Bridgewater J, Rivera F, Figer A, Fountzilas G, Andre T. Oxaliplatin/5-FU/LV in adjuvant colon cancer: results of the international randomized MOSAIC trial (abstract 1015). Proc Am Soc Clin Oncol 2003;22:253a.
  6. deGramont A, Figer A, Seymour M, et al. Leucovorin and fluorouracil with or without oxaliplatin as first-Line treatment in advanced colorectal cancer. J Clin Oncol 2000;18:2938-2947.
  7. Efficacy of adjuvant fluorouracil and folinic acid in colon cancer. International Multicentre Pooled Analysis of Colon Cancer Trials (IMPACT) investigators. Lancet. 1995;345(8955):939-44.
  8. Efficacy of adjuvant fluorouracil and folinic acid in B2 colon cancer. International Multicentre Pooled Analysis of B2 Colon Cancer Trials (IMPACT B2) Investigators. J Clin Oncol. 1999;17(5):1356-63.
  9. Gill S, Loprinzi CL, Sargent DJ, et al. Pooled analysis of fluorouracil-based adjuvant therapy for stage II and III colon cancer: who benefits and by how much? J Clin Oncol. 2004;22(10):1797-806.
  10. Goldberg RM, Sargent DJ, Morton RF, et al. A randomized controlled trial of fluorouracil plus leucovorin, irinotecan, and oxaliplatin combinations in patients with previously untreated metastatic colorectal cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2004;22(1):23-30.
  11. Hurwitz H, Fehrenbacher L, Novotny W, et al. Bevacizumab plus irinotecan, fluorouracil, and leucovorin for metastatic colorectal cancer. N Engl J Med 2004;350:2335-2342.
  12. Jentschura D, Raute M, Winter J, Hendel T, Kraus M, Manegold BC. Complications in endoscopy of the lower gastrointestinal tract. Therapy and prognosis. Surg Endosc 1994;8:672-676.
  13. Moertel CG, Fleming TR, Macdonald JS, et al. Intergroup study of fluorouracil plus levamisole as adjuvant therapy for stage II/Dukes' B2 colon cancer. J Clin Oncol. 1995;13(12):2936-43.
  14. Moertel CG, Fleming TR, Macdonald JS, et al. Fluorouracil plus levamisole as effective adjuvant therapy after resection of stage III colon carcinoma: a final report. Ann Intern Med. 1995;122(5):321-6.
  15. Morson B. President's address. The polyp-cancer sequence in the large bowel. Proc R Soc Med. 1974;67(6):451-7.
  16. Muto T, Bussey HJ, Morson BC. The evolution of cancer of the colon and rectum. Cancer. 1975;36(6):2251-70.
  17. Potosky AL, Harlan LC, Kaplan RS, et al. Age, sex, and racial differences in the use of standard adjuvant therapy for colorectal cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2002;20(5):1192-202.
  18. Rossouw JE, Anderson GL, Prentice RL, LaCroix AZ, Kooperberg C, Stefanick ML, Jackson RD, Beresford SA, Howard BV, Johnson KC, Kotchen JM, Ockene J; Writing Group for the Women's Health Initiative Investigators. Risks and benefits of estrogen plus progestin in healthy postmenopausal women: principal results From the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial. JAMA 2002;288:321-33
  19. Saltz LB, Cox JV, Blanke C, et al. Irinotecan plus fluorouracil and leucovorin for metastatic colorectal cancer. Irinotecan Study Group. N Engl J Med 2000;343:905-914.
  20. Saltz L, Niedzwiecki D, Hollis D, Goldberg RM, Hantel, A, Thomas JP, Fields ALA, Carver G, Mayer RJ. Irinotecan plus fluorouracil/leucovorin (IFL) versus fluorouracil/leucovorin alone (FL) in stage III colon cancer (intergroup trial CALGB C89803). Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2004 ASCO Annual Meeting Proceedings (Post-Meeting Edition). 2004;22(14S (July 15 supplement)):3500.
  21. Sargent DJ, Goldberg RM, Jacobson SD, Macdonald JS, Labianca R, Haller DG, Shepard LE, Seitz JF, Francini G. A pooled analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy for resected colon cancer in elderly patients. N Engl J Med 2001; 345:1091-1097.
  22. Schrag D, Cramer LD, Bach PB and Begg CB. Age and adjuvant chemotherapy use after surgery for stage III colon cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2001;93(11):850-857.
  23. Schrag D, Rifas-Shiman S, Saltz L, et al. Adjuvant chemotherapy use for Medicare beneficiaries with stage II colon cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2002;20(19):3999-4005.
  24. Tournigand C, Andre T, Achille E, et al. FOLFIRI followed by FOLFOX6 or the reverse sequence in advanced colorectal cancer: a randomized GERCOR study. J Clin Oncol. 2004;22(2):229-37.
  25. Warren JL, Harlan LC, Fahey A, et al. Utility of the SEER-Medicare data to identify chemotherapy use. Med Care. 2002;40(8 Suppl):IV-55-61.

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Data Sources

The following data sources were used in the models for colorectal cancer mortality projections.

Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS)

Used for: risk factor effects
Description: The HPFS began in 1986 when approximately 51,500 male health professionals 40-75 year of age were recruited to study the dietary etiologies of heart disease and cancer. Risk factors for various cancers were collected at baseline. Incident cancers are identified by follow-up questionnaires, which have response rates of 90% for every two-year cycle.

National Health and Nutrition Examination Study (NHANES)

Used for: risk factor prevalence
Description: NHANES is arguably the largest and longest-running national source of objectively measured health and nutrition data. Households are chosen at random within neighborhoods to participate. Information is gathered by directly interviewing the survey participants and those within their household about their health, and by conducting clinical tests, anthropometric, biochemical, and radiological measurements, and physical examinations.

National Health Interview Survey (NHIS)

Used for: screening dissemination
Description: The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) is a continuing, nationwide in-person survey of approximately 40,000 households in the civilian non-institutionalized population. This survey of about 100,000 persons is conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and administered by the US Census Bureau.

Nurses' Health Study (NHS)

Used for: risk factor effects
Description: The NHIS began in 1976, when 121,700 registered nurses 30 to 55 years of age returned a mailed questionnaire that included details on risk factors for breast and other cancers. Follow-up questionnaires mailed every two years identify incident cancers and collect detailed information on diet, physical activity, smoking history, and other exposures.

Patterns of Care Studies

Used for: chemotherapy dissemination
Description: Patterns of Care studies are randomized controlled trials for chemotherapy efficacy. They began in 1987 with SEER cases serving as controls for a study that examined the provision of state-of-the-art therapy in Community Clinical Oncology Program hospitals. In 1990, the number of cases included in the POC initiative was increased substantially to obtain more stable estimates of community practice in a population-based sample of cases.

SEER-Medicare Linked Database

Used for: chemotherapy dissemination
Description: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, started in 1973, currently collects and publishes cancer incidence and survival data from population-based cancer registries covering approximately 26 percent of the US population. The SEER Program registries routinely collect data on patient demographics, primary tumor site, tumor morphology and stage at diagnosis, first course of treatment, and follow-up for vital status. The SEER Program is the only comprehensive source of population-based information in the United States that includes stage of cancer at the time of diagnosis and patient survival data.

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