Summary: read the key findings derived from the simulation results
The Colorectal Cancer Mortality Projections web site is designed to answer questions, such as: which interventions are most effective in reducing colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality, and what sort of improvement might I expect?
We examined the results of our modeling and derived key findings for those who are looking for quick answers. Studying the key findings will also give you a sense of how to understand the model results.
You can explore the results on your own using the interactive graphs.
Key Findings from the Colorectal Cancer Mortality Projections
- How can we accelerate the reduction in colorectal cancer mortality most effectively?
Our simulation models predict that if we maintain the current rate of improvement in reducing risk factors, increasing screening, and using chemotherapy, we will see a continued reduction in colorectal cancer mortality. Beyond that, an even higher usage of screening has the largest additional impact on mortality over the next 15 years. However, the impact of delivering the best available chemotherapy to anyone who could benefit from high quality care could be immediate, responsible for almost all the further reduction in mortality for the first 5 years. Read more >
- When will we reach the Healthy People 2010 colorectal cancer mortality objective of 13.7 deaths per 100,000?
We used our simulation models to determine whether we are on track to meet the Healthy People 2010 objective for CRC mortality for the general population. Our models predict that given projected trends in risk factors, screening and chemotherapy, the mortality rate will be 15.1 per 100,000 for the general population. Even if those interventions are stepped up to a level we believe is optimistic but still realistic, the rate will be 14.5 in 2010. However, white women are likely to achieve the objective of 13.7 deaths per 100,000 before 2010, and white men and black women by 2020. Read more >
- What effect can reducing risk factors have on colorectal cancer mortality?
Reducing risk factors has a noticeable positive effect on CRC mortality, but because CRC develops slowly, it takes some time to show up. We looked at eight modifiable risk factors known to be associated with CRC mortality including smoking rates, eating more fruits and vegetables and less red meat, using multivitamins and aspirin, exercising and maintaining a healthy weight. Improving risk factor trends beyond current projections would further reduce mortality due to CRC by about 3% by 2020. Read more >
- Given currently available interventions, how far can we reduce colorectal cancer mortality?
Over the time frame of our study, we were able to see a nearly 50% reduction in CRC, from 19.9 deaths per 100,000 in 2002 to around10.5 per 100,000 in 2020. A reduction of this magnitude would require increased effort in risk reduction, screening and chemotherapy. Maintaining current trends (which is an effort as well) will result in about a 40% reduction, to 11.9 deaths per 100,000 in 2020. Read more >