Publications by Cancer Site

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Breast

2016

Cevik M, Ergun MA, Stout NK, Trentham-Dietz A, Craven M, Alagoz O. Using Active Learning for Speeding up Calibration in Simulation Models. Med Decis Making 2016 Jul;36(5):581-93. Epub 2015 Oct 15. [Abstract]

Chang Y, Near AM, Butler KM, Hoeffken A, Edwards SL, Stroup AM, Kohlmann W, Gammon A, Buys SS, Schwartz MD, Peshkin BN, Kinney AY, Mandelblatt JS, Chang Y, Near AM, Butler KM, Hoeffken A, Edwards SL, Stroup AM, Kohlmann W, Gammon A, Buys SS, Schwartz MD, Peshkin BN, Kinney AY, Mandelblatt JS. Economic Evaluation Alongside a Clinical Trial of Telephone Versus In-Person Genetic Counseling for BRCA1/2 Mutations in Geographically Underserved Areas. J Oncol Pract 2016 Jan;12(1):59, e1-13. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Stout NK, Schechter CB, van den Broek JJ, Miglioretti DL, Krapcho M, Trentham-Dietz A, Munoz D, Lee SJ, Berry DA, van Ravesteyn NT, Alagoz O, Kerlikowske K, Tosteson AN, Near AM, Hoeffken A, Chang Y, Heijnsdijk EA, Chisholm G, Huang X, Huang H, Ergun MA, Gangnon R, Sprague BL, Plevritis S, Feuer E, de Koning HJ, Cronin KA. Collaborative Modeling of the Benefits and Harms Associated With Different U.S. Breast Cancer Screening Strategies. Ann Intern Med 2016 Feb 16;164(4):215-25. Epub 2016 Jan 12. [Abstract]

Miglioretti DL, Lange J, van den Broek JJ, Lee CI, van Ravesteyn NT, Ritley D, Kerlikowske K, Fenton JJ, Melnikow J, de Koning HJ, Hubbard RA. Radiation-Induced Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality From Digital Mammography Screening: A Modeling Study. Ann Intern Med 2016 Feb 16;164(4):205-14. Epub 2016 Jan 12. [Abstract]

2015

Gangnon RE, Sprague BL, Stout NK, Alagoz O, Weedon-Fekjær H, Holford TR, Trentham-Dietz A. The contribution of mammography screening to breast cancer incidence trends in the United States: an updated age-period-cohort model. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2015 Jun;24(6):905-12. Epub 2015 Mar 18. [Abstract]

Lee CI, Cevik M, Alagoz O, Sprague BL, Tosteson AN, Miglioretti DL, Kerlikowske K, Stout NK, Jarvik JG, Ramsey SD, Lehman CD. Comparative effectiveness of combined digital mammography and tomosynthesis screening for women with dense breasts. Radiology 2015 Mar;274(3):772-80. Epub 2014 Oct 28. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt J, Cronin K, de Koning H, Miglioretti DL, Schechter C, Stout N. Collaborative Modeling of U.S. Breast Cancer Screening Strategies. Writing Committee of the Breast Cancer Working Group; 2015 Apr. AHRQ Publication No. 14-05201-EF-4. [Resources]

Scheel JR, Lee JM, Sprague BL, Lee CI, Lehman CD. Screening ultrasound as an adjunct to mammography in women with mammographically dense breasts. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2015 Jan;212(1):9-17. Epub 2014 Jun 21. [Abstract]

Sprague BL, Gangnon RE, Hampton JM, Egan KM, Titus LJ, Kerlikowske K, Remington PL, Newcomb PA, Trentham-Dietz A. Variation in Breast Cancer-Risk Factor Associations by Method of Detection: Results From a Series of Case-Control Studies. Am J Epidemiol 2015 Jun 15;181(12):956-69. Epub 2015 May 5. [Abstract]

Sprague BL, Stout NK, Schechter C, van Ravesteyn NT, Cevik M, Alagoz O, Lee CI, van den Broek JJ, Miglioretti DL, Mandelblatt JS, de Koning HJ, Kerlikowske K, Lehman CD, Tosteson AN. Benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of supplemental ultrasonography screening for women with dense breasts. Ann Intern Med 2015 Feb 3;162(3):157-66. [Abstract]

van Ravesteyn NT, Stout NK, Schechter CB, Heijnsdijk EA, Alagoz O, Trentham-Dietz A, Mandelblatt JS, de Koning HJ. Benefits and harms of mammography screening after age 74 years: model estimates of overdiagnosis. J Natl Cancer Inst 2015 May 6;107. (7). Print 2015 Jul. [Abstract]

van Ravesteyn NT, van Lier L, Schechter CB, Ekwueme DU, Royalty J, Miller JW, Near AM, Cronin KA, Heijnsdijk EA, Mandelblatt JS, de Koning HJ. Transition from film to digital mammography: impact for breast cancer screening through the national breast and cervical cancer early detection program. Am J Prev Med 2015 May;48(5):535-42. [Abstract]

Yaffe MJ, Mittmann N, Lee P, Tosteson AN, Trentham-Dietz A, Alagoz O, Stout NK. Modelling mammography screening for breast cancer in the Canadian context: Modification and testing of a microsimulation model. Health Rep 2015 Dec;26(12):3-8. [Abstract]

2014

Berry DA. Failure of researchers, reviewers, editors, and the media to understand flaws in cancer screening studies: application to an article in Cancer. Cancer 2014 Sep 15;120(18):2784-91. Epub 2014 Jun 12. [Abstract]

Gallaher J, Babu A, Plevritis S, Anderson AR. Bridging population and tissue scale tumor dynamics: a new paradigm for understanding differences in tumor growth and metastatic disease. Cancer Res 2014 Jan 15;74(2):426-35. Epub 2014 Jan 9. [Abstract]

Habbema JD, Wilt TJ, Etzioni R, Nelson HD, Schechter CB, Lawrence WF, Melnikow J, Kuntz KM, Owens DK, Feuer EJ. Models in the development of clinical practice guidelines. Ann Intern Med 2014 Dec 2;161(11):812-8. [Abstract]

Jewett PI, Gangnon RE, Trentham-Dietz A, Sprague BL. Trends of postmenopausal estrogen plus progestin prevalence in the United States between 1970 and 2010. Obstet Gynecol 2014 Oct;124(4):727-33. [Abstract]

Jia N, Lee SJ. An Exact Formula for Estimation of Age-Specific Sensitivity for Screening Tests. APPL MATH 2014 Oct;5:2771-2778.

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Gulati R, Mariotto AB, Schechter CB, de Carvalho TM, Knudsen AB, van Ravesteyn NT, Heijnsdijk EA, Pabiniak C, van Ballegooijen M, Rutter CM, Kuntz KM, Feuer EJ, Etzioni R, de Koning HJ, Zauber AG, Mandelblatt JS. Personalizing age of cancer screening cessation based on comorbid conditions: model estimates of harms and benefits. Ann Intern Med 2014 Jul 15;161(2):104-12. [Abstract]

Munoz D, Near AM, van Ravesteyn NT, Lee SJ, Schechter CB, Alagoz O, Berry DA, Burnside ES, Chang Y, Chisholm G, de Koning HJ, Ali Ergun M, Heijnsdijk EA, Huang H, Stout NK, Sprague BL, Trentham-Dietz A, Mandelblatt JS, Plevritis SK. Effects of screening and systemic adjuvant therapy on ER-specific US breast cancer mortality. J Natl Cancer Inst 2014 Sep 24;106. (11). Print 2014 Nov. [Abstract]

Munsell MF, Sprague BL, Berry DA, Chisholm G, Trentham-Dietz A. Body mass index and breast cancer risk according to postmenopausal estrogen-progestin use and hormone receptor status. Epidemiol Rev 2014;36:114-36. [Abstract]

Schwartz MD, Valdimarsdottir HB, Peshkin BN, Mandelblatt J, Nusbaum R, Huang AT, Chang Y, Graves K, Isaacs C, Wood M, McKinnon W, Garber J, McCormick S, Kinney AY, Luta G, Kelleher S, Leventhal KG, Vegella P, Tong A, King L. Randomized noninferiority trial of telephone versus in-person genetic counseling for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer. J Clin Oncol 2014 Mar 1;32(7):618-26. Epub 2014 Jan 21. [Abstract]

Sprague BL, Gangnon RE, Burt V, Trentham-Dietz A, Hampton JM, Wellman RD, Kerlikowske K, Miglioretti DL. Prevalence of mammographically dense breasts in the United States. J Natl Cancer Inst 2014 Sep 12;106. (10). Print 2014 Oct. [Abstract]

Stout NK, Lee SJ, Schechter CB, Kerlikowske K, Alagoz O, Berry D, Buist DS, Cevik M, Chisholm G, de Koning HJ, Huang H, Hubbard RA, Miglioretti DL, Munsell MF, Trentham-Dietz A, van Ravesteyn NT, Tosteson AN, Mandelblatt JS. Benefits, harms, and costs for breast cancer screening after US implementation of digital mammography. J Natl Cancer Inst 2014 May 28;106(6):dju092. Print 2014 Jun. [Abstract]

Trentham-Dietz A, Sprague BL, Hampton JM, Miglioretti DL, Nelson HD, Titus LJ, Egan KM, Remington PL, Newcomb PA. Modification of breast cancer risk according to age and menopausal status: a combined analysis of five population-based case-control studies. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2014 May;145(1):165-75. Epub 2014 Mar 20. [Abstract]

Weedon-Fekjær H, Romundstad PR, Vatten LJ. Modern mammography screening and breast cancer mortality: population study. BMJ 2014 Jun 17;348:g3701. [Abstract]

2013

Batina NG, Trentham-Dietz A, Gangnon RE, Sprague BL, Rosenberg MA, Stout NK, Fryback DG, Alagoz O. Variation in tumor natural history contributes to racial disparities in breast cancer stage at diagnosis. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2013 Apr;138(2):519-28. Epub 2013 Feb 16. [Abstract]

Berry DA. Breast cancer screening: controversy of impact. Breast 2013 Aug;22 Suppl 2:S73-6. [Abstract]

Braithwaite D, Mandelblatt JS, Kerlikowske K. To screen or not to screen older women for breast cancer: a conundrum. Future Oncol 2013 Jun;9(6):763-6. [Abstract]

Braithwaite D, Zhu W, Hubbard RA, O'Meara ES, Miglioretti DL, Geller B, Dittus K, Moore D, Wernli KJ, Mandelblatt J, Kerlikowske K, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Screening outcomes in older US women undergoing multiple mammograms in community practice: does interval, age, or comorbidity score affect tumor characteristics or false positive rates? J Natl Cancer Inst 2013 Mar 6;105(5):334-41. Epub 2013 Feb 5. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Gulati R, Mallinger L, Mandelblatt J. Influence of study features and methods on overdiagnosis estimates in breast and prostate cancer screening. Ann Intern Med 2013 Jun 4;158(11):831-8. [Abstract]

Luo S, Yi M, Huang X, Hunt KK. A Bayesian model for misclassified binary outcomes and correlated survival data with applications to breast cancer. Stat Med 2013 Jun 15;32(13):2320-34. Epub 2012 Sep 21. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt J, van Ravesteyn N, Schechter C, Chang Y, Huang AT, Near AM, de Koning H, Jemal A. Which strategies reduce breast cancer mortality most? Collaborative modeling of optimal screening, treatment, and obesity prevention. Cancer 2013 Jul 15;119(14):2541-8. Epub 2013 Apr 26. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Tosteson AN, van Ravesteyn NT. Costs, evidence, and value in the Medicare program: the challenges of technology innovation in breast cancer prevention and control. JAMA Intern Med 2013 Feb 11;173(3):227-8. [Abstract]

Schackmann EA, Munoz DF, Mills MA, Plevritis SK, Kurian AW. Feasibility evaluation of an online tool to guide decisions for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Fam Cancer 2013 Mar;12(1):65-73. [Abstract]

van Luijt PA, Fracheboud J, Heijnsdijk EA, den Heeten GJ, de Koning HJ, National Evaluation Team for Breast Cancer Screening in Netherlands Study Group (NETB). Nation-wide data on screening performance during the transition to digital mammography: observations in 6 million screens. Eur J Cancer 2013 Nov;49(16):3517-25. Epub 2013 Jul 17. [Abstract]

Wang YC, Graubard BI, Rosenberg MA, Kuntz KM, Zauber AG, Kahle L, Schechter CB, Feuer EJ. Derivation of background mortality by smoking and obesity in cancer simulation models. Med Decis Making 2013 Feb;33(2):176-97. Epub 2012 Nov 6. [Abstract]

2012

Bekele BN, Nieto-Barajas LE, Munsell MF. Analysis of partially incomplete tables of breast cancer patients' characteristics with an ordinal variable. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice 2012;9:725-44.

Chang Y, Schechter CB, van Ravesteyn NT, Near AM, Heijnsdijk EA, Adams-Campbell L, Levy D, de Koning HJ, Mandelblatt JS. Collaborative modeling of the impact of obesity on race-specific breast cancer incidence and mortality. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2012 Dec;136(3):823-35. Epub 2012 Oct 27. [Abstract]

Gangnon RE, Sprague B, Stout N, Alagoz O, Trentham-Dietz A. Age-period-cohort analysis of invasive breast cancer incidence in the United States, 1935-2008. Proceedings of 45th Annual SEER Meeting ; June 27-30, 2012; 2012. p. S6. [Link]

Kurian AW, Munoz DF, Rust P, Schackmann EA, Smith M, Clarke L, Mills MA, Plevritis SK. Online tool to guide decisions for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. J Clin Oncol 2012 Feb 10;30(5):497-506. Epub 2012 Jan 9. [Abstract]

Lin RS, Plevritis SK. Comparing the benefits of screening for breast cancer and lung cancer using a novel natural history model. Cancer Causes Control 2012 Jan;23(1):175-85. Epub 2011 Nov 25. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt J, Schechter C, Levy D, Zauber A, Chang Y, Etzioni R. Building better models: if we build them, will policy makers use them? Toward integrating modeling into health care decisions. Med Decis Making 2012 Sep-Oct;32(5):656-9. [Abstract]

Morrissey JP, Lich KH, Price RA, Mandelblatt J. Computational modeling and multilevel cancer control interventions. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2012 May;2012(44):56-66. [Abstract]

Near AM, Mandelblatt JS, Schechter CB, Stoto MA. Using Simulation Modeling to Inform Strategies to Reduce Breast Cancer Mortality in Black Women in the District of Columbia. Epidemiol Res Int 2012 Apr 26;2012. (2012). [Abstract]

Nelson HD, Zakher B, Cantor A, Fu R, Griffin J, O'Meara ES, Buist DS, Kerlikowske K, van Ravesteyn NT, Trentham-Dietz A, Mandelblatt JS, Miglioretti DL. Risk factors for breast cancer for women aged 40 to 49 years: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Ann Intern Med 2012 May 1;156(9):635-48. [Abstract]

Sigal BM, Munoz DF, Kurian AW, Plevritis SK. A simulation model to predict the impact of prophylactic surgery and screening on the life expectancy of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2012 Jul;21(7):1066-77. Epub 2012 May 3. [Abstract]

Sprague BL, Trentham-Dietz A, Cronin KA. A sustained decline in postmenopausal hormone use: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2010. Obstet Gynecol 2012 Sep;120(3):595-603. [Abstract]

Sprague BL, Trentham-Dietz A, Cronin KA. A sustained decline in postmenopausal hormone use: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2010. Am J Epidemiol 2012;173(Suppl 11):S135.

van Ravesteyn NT, Miglioretti DL, Stout NK, Lee SJ, Schechter CB, Buist DS, Huang H, Heijnsdijk EA, Trentham-Dietz A, Alagoz O, Near AM, Kerlikowske K, Nelson HD, Mandelblatt JS, de Koning HJ. Tipping the balance of benefits and harms to favor screening mammography starting at age 40 years: a comparative modeling study of risk. Ann Intern Med 2012 May 1;156(9):609-17. [Abstract]

Weedon-Fekjær H, Bakken K, Vatten LJ, Tretli S. Understanding recent trends in incidence of invasive breast cancer in Norway: age-period-cohort analysis based on registry data on mammography screening and hormone treatment use. BMJ 2012 Jan 30;344:e299. [Abstract]

2011

Edwards-Bennett SM. Racial disparities in breast cancer mortality--letter. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2011 May;20(5):1046; author reply 1047. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt J, Cronin K. Response to Hendrick and Helvie by the Cancer Intervention Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Breast Working Group. AJR Am J Roentgenol 2011 Oct;197(4):W792; author reply 794. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Cronin KA, Berry DA, Chang Y, de Koning HJ, Lee SJ, Plevritis SK, Schechter CB, Stout NK, van Ravesteyn NT, Zelen M, Feuer EJ. Modeling the impact of population screening on breast cancer mortality in the United States. Breast 2011 Oct;20 Suppl 3:S75-81. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Stout N, Trentham-Dietz A. To screen or not to screen women in their 40s for breast cancer: is personalized risk-based screening the answer? Ann Intern Med 2011 Jul 5;155(1):58-60. [Abstract]

Sprague BL, Trentham-Dietz A, Hampton JM, Egan KM, Titus-Ernstof L, Remington PL, Newcomb PA. Variation in breast cancer risk factors by mode of detection. Am J Epidemiol 2011;173(Suppl 11):S251.

van Ravesteyn NT, Heijnsdijk EA, de Koning HJ. More on screening mammography. N Engl J Med 2011 Jan 20;364(3):282-3; author reply 285-6. [Abstract]

van Ravesteyn NT, Heijnsdijk EA, Draisma G, de Koning HJ. Prediction of higher mortality reduction for the UK Breast Screening Frequency Trial: a model-based approach on screening intervals. Br J Cancer 2011 Sep 27;105(7):1082-8. Epub 2011 Aug 23. [Abstract]

van Ravesteyn NT, Schechter CB, Near AM, Heijnsdijk EA, Stoto MA, Draisma G, de Koning HJ, Mandelblatt JS. Race-specific impact of natural history, mammography screening, and adjuvant treatment on breast cancer mortality rates in the United States. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2011 Jan;20(1):112-22. Epub 2010 Nov 30. [Abstract]

2010

Bailey SL, Sigal BM, Plevritis SK. A simulation model investigating the impact of tumor volume doubling time and mammographic tumor detectability on screening outcomes in women aged 40-49 years. J Natl Cancer Inst 2010 Aug 18;102(16):1263-71. Epub 2010 Jul 27. [Abstract]

Kalager M, Zelen M, Langmark F, Adami HO. Effect of screening mammography on breast-cancer mortality in Norway. N Engl J Med 2010 Sep 23;363(13):1203-10. [Abstract]

Kurian AW, Sigal BM, Plevritis SK. Survival analysis of cancer risk reduction strategies for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. J Clin Oncol 2010 Jan 10;28(2):222-31. Epub 2009 Dec 7. [Abstract]

Weedon-Fekjaer H, Tretli S, Aalen OO. Estimating screening test sensitivity and tumour progression using tumour size and time since previous screening. Stat Methods Med Res 2010 Oct;19(5):507-27. Epub 2010 Mar 31. [Abstract]

2009

Mandelblatt JS, Cronin KA, Bailey S, Berry DA, de Koning HJ, Draisma G, Huang H, Lee SJ, Munsell M, Plevritis SK, Ravdin P, Schechter CB, Sigal B, Stoto MA, Stout NK, van Ravesteyn NT, Venier J, Zelen M, Feuer EJ, Breast Cancer Working Group of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network. Effects of mammography screening under different screening schedules: model estimates of potential benefits and harms. Ann Intern Med 2009 Nov 17;151(10):738-47. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Silliman R. Hanging in the balance: making decisions about the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening among the oldest old without a safety net of scientific evidence. J Clin Oncol 2009 Feb 1;27(4):487-90. Epub 2008 Dec 15. [Abstract]

2008

Lee SJ, Zelen M. Mortality modeling of early detection programs. Biometrics 2008 Jun;64(2):386-95. Epub 2007 Aug 28. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Potosky AL. On the road to improving the quality of breast cancer care: a distance still to travel. Med Care 2008 Aug;46(8):759-61. [Abstract]

Stout NK, Goldie SJ. Keeping the noise down: common random numbers for disease simulation modeling. Health Care Manag Sci 2008 Dec;11(4):399-406. [Abstract]

Tosteson AN, Stout NK, Fryback DG, Acharyya S, Herman BA, Hannah LG, Pisano ED, DMIST Investigators. Cost-effectiveness of digital mammography breast cancer screening. Ann Intern Med 2008 Jan 1;148(1):1-10. [Abstract]

2007

Plevritis SK, Salzman P, Sigal BM, Glynn PW. A natural history model of stage progression applied to breast cancer. Stat Med 2007 Feb 10;26(3):581-95. [Abstract]

Ravdin PM, Cronin KA, Howlader N, Berg CD, Chlebowski RT, Feuer EJ, Edwards BK, Berry DA. The decrease in breast-cancer incidence in 2003 in the United States. N Engl J Med 2007 Apr 19;356(16):1670-4. [Abstract]

2006

Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Breast Cancer Collaborators. The impact of mammography and adjuvant therapy on U.S. breast cancer mortality (1975-2000): Collective Results from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network. J Natl Cancer Inst Monographs 2006;36:1-126.

Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Breast Cancer Collaborators. Executive summary. J Natl Cancer Inst Monograph 2006;36:1-2. [Link]

Feuer EJ. Modeling the impact of adjuvant therapy and screening mammography on U.S. breast cancer mortality between 1975 and 2000: introduction to the problem. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):2-6. [Abstract]

Mariotto AB, Feuer EJ, Harlan LC, Abrams J. Dissemination of adjuvant multiagent chemotherapy and tamoxifen for breast cancer in the United States using estrogen receptor information: 1975-1999. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):7-15. [Abstract]

Rosenberg MA. Competing risks to breast cancer mortality. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):15-9. [Abstract]

Holford TR, Cronin KA, Mariotto AB, Feuer EJ. Changing patterns in breast cancer incidence trends. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):19-25. [Abstract]

Cronin KA, Mariotto AB, Clarke LD, Feuer EJ. Additional common inputs for analyzing impact of adjuvant therapy and mammography on U.S. mortality. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):26-9. [Abstract]

Berry DA, Inoue L, Shen Y, Venier J, Cohen D, Bondy M, Theriault R, Munsell MF. Modeling the impact of treatment and screening on U.S. breast cancer mortality: a Bayesian approach. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):30-6. [Abstract]

Fryback DG, Stout NK, Rosenberg MA, Trentham-Dietz A, Kuruchittham V, Remington PL. The Wisconsin Breast Cancer Epidemiology Simulation Model. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):37-47. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt J, Schechter CB, Lawrence W, Yi B, Cullen J. The SPECTRUM population model of the impact of screening and treatment on U.S. breast cancer trends from 1975 to 2000: principles and practice of the model methods. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):47-55. [Abstract]

Tan SY, van Oortmarssen GJ, de Koning HJ, Boer R, Habbema JD. The MISCAN-Fadia continuous tumor growth model for breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):56-65. [Abstract]

Hanin LG, Miller A, Zorin AV, Yakovlev AY. The University of Rochester model of breast cancer detection and survival. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):66-78. [Abstract]

Lee S, Zelen M. A stochastic model for predicting the mortality of breast cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):79-86. [Abstract]

Plevritis SK, Sigal BM, Salzman P, Rosenberg J, Glynn P. A stochastic simulation model of U.S. breast cancer mortality trends from 1975 to 2000. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):86-95. [Abstract]

Clarke LD, Plevritis SK, Boer R, Cronin KA, Feuer EJ. A comparative review of CISNET breast models used to analyze U.S. breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):96-105. [Abstract]

Habbema JD, Tan SY, Cronin KA. Impact of mammography on U.S. breast cancer mortality, 1975-2000: are intermediate outcome measures informative? J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):105-11. [Abstract]

Cronin KA, Feuer EJ, Clarke LD, Plevritis SK. Impact of adjuvant therapy and mammography on U.S. mortality from 1975 to 2000: comparison of mortality results from the cisnet breast cancer base case analysis. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):112-21. [Abstract]

Habbema JD, Schechter CB, Cronin KA, Clarke LD, Feuer EJ. Modeling cancer natural history, epidemiology, and control: reflections on the CISNET breast group experience. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006;(36):122-6. [Abstract]

Hanin LG, Pavlova LV. Optimal regimens of cancer screening. In: Edler L, Kitsos CP, editors. Recent advances in quantitative methods in cancer and human health risk assessment. New York: Wiley; 2006 Jun. p. 177-91. [Link]

Liang W, Kasman D, Wang JH, Yuan EH, Mandelblatt JS. Communication between older women and physicians: preliminary implications for satisfaction and intention to have mammography. Patient Educ Couns 2006 Dec;64(1-3):387-92. Epub 2006 Jul 26. [Abstract]

Plevritis SK, Kurian AW, Sigal BM, Daniel BL, Ikeda DM, Stockdale FE, Garber AM. Cost-effectiveness of screening BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with breast magnetic resonance imaging. JAMA 2006 May 24;295(20):2374-84. [Abstract]

Stout NK, Rosenberg MA, Trentham-Dietz A, Smith MA, Robinson SM, Fryback DG. Retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis of screening mammography. J Natl Cancer Inst 2006 Jun 7;98(11):774-82. [Abstract]

2005

Berry DA, Cronin KA, Plevritis SK, Fryback DG, Clarke L, Zelen M, Mandelblatt JS, Yakovlev AY, Habbema JD, Feuer EJ, Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Collaborators. Effect of screening and adjuvant therapy on mortality from breast cancer. N Engl J Med 2005 Oct 27;353(17):1784-92. [Abstract]

Cronin KA, Yu B, Krapcho M, Miglioretti DL, Fay MP, Izmirlian G, Ballard-Barbash R, Geller BM, Feuer EJ. Modeling the dissemination of mammography in the United States. Cancer Causes Control 2005 Aug;16(6):701-12. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Schechter CB, Yabroff KR, Lawrence W, Dignam J, Extermann M, Fox S, Orosz G, Silliman R, Cullen J, Balducci L, Breast Cancer in Older Women Research Consortium. Toward optimal screening strategies for older women. Costs, benefits, and harms of breast cancer screening by age, biology, and health status. J Gen Intern Med 2005 Jun;20(6):487-96. [Abstract]

Pignone M, Saha S, Hoerger T, Lohr KN, Teutsch S, Mandelblatt J. Challenges in systematic reviews of economic analyses. Ann Intern Med 2005 Jun 21;142(12 Pt 2):1073-9. [Abstract]

Rosenberg J, Chia YL, Plevritis S. The effect of age, race, tumor size, tumor grade, and disease stage on invasive ductal breast cancer survival in the U.S. SEER database. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2005 Jan;89(1):47-54. [Abstract]

Shen Y, Yang Y, Inoue LY, Munsell MF, Miller AB, Berry DA. Role of detection method in predicting breast cancer survival: analysis of randomized screening trials. J Natl Cancer Inst 2005 Aug 17;97(16):1195-203. [Abstract]

Shen Y, Zelen M. Robust modeling in screening studies: estimation of sensitivity and preclinical sojourn time distribution. Biostatistics 2005 Oct;6(4):604-14. Epub 2005 Apr 28. [Abstract]

Zelen M. Risks of cancer and families. J Natl Cancer Inst 2005 Nov 2;97(21):1556-7. [Abstract]

Zorin AV, Edler L, Hanin LG, Yakovlev AY. Estimating the natural history of breast cancer from bivariate data on age and tumor size at diagnosis. In: Edle L, Kitsos CP, editors. Recent Advances in Quantitative Methods for Cancer and Human Health Risk Assessment. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd; 2005. p. 317-27. [Link]

2004

Andersen LD, Remington PL, Trentham-Dietz A, Robert S. Community trends in the early detection of breast cancer in Wisconsin, 1980-1998. Am J Prev Med 2004 Jan;26(1):51-5. [Abstract]

Boer R, Plevritis S, Clarke L. Diversity of model approaches for breast cancer screening: a review of model assumptions by the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network (CISNET) Breast Cancer Groups. Stat Methods Med Res 2004 Dec;13(6):525-38. [Abstract]

Boucher KM, Asselain B, Tsodikov AD, Yakovlev AY. Semiparametric versus parametric regression analysis based on the bounded cumulative hazard model: An application to breast cancer recurrence. In: Nikulin MS, Balakrishnan N, Mesban M, Limnios N, editors. Parametric and Semiparametric Models with Applications to Reliability, Survival Analysis, and Quality of Life. Boston, MA: Birhauser; 2004. p. 399-418.

Chia YL, Salzman P, Plevritis SK, Glynn PW. Simulation-based parameter estimation for complex models: a breast cancer natural history modelling illustration. Stat Methods Med Res 2004 Dec;13(6):507-24. [Abstract]

Davidov O, Zelen M. Overdiagnosis in early detection programs. Biostatistics 2004 Oct;5(4):603-13. [Abstract]

Feuer EJ, Boer R, Holford TR. Developing and comparing population models for the early detection of cancer. Stat Meth Med Res Dec 2004;13(6):419-20.

Hanin LG, Yakovlev AY. Multivariate distributions of clinical covariates at the time of cancer detection. Stat Methods Med Res 2004 Dec;13(6):457-89. [Abstract]

Hu P, Zelen M. Planning of randomized early detection trials. Stat Methods Med Res 2004 Dec;13(6):491-506. [Abstract]

Lee S, Huang H, Zelen M. Early detection of disease and scheduling of screening examinations. Stat Methods Med Res 2004 Dec;13(6):443-56. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt JS, Schechter CB, Yabroff KR, Lawrence W, Dignam J, Muennig P, Chavez Y, Cullen J, Fahs M. Benefits and costs of interventions to improve breast cancer outcomes in African American women. J Clin Oncol 2004 Jul 1;22(13):2554-66. Epub 2004 Jun 1. [Abstract]

Zelen M. Forward and backward recurrence times and length biased sampling: age specific models. Lifetime Data Anal 2004 Dec;10(4):325-34. [Abstract]

2003

Davidov O, Zelen M. The theory of case-control studies for early detection programs. Biostatistics 2003 Jul;4(3):411-21. [Abstract]

Lee SJ, Zelen M. Modelling the early detection of breast cancer. Ann Oncol 2003 Aug;14(8):1199-202. [Abstract]

Mandelblatt J, Saha S, Teutsch S, Hoerger T, Siu AL, Atkins D, Klein J, Helfand M, Cost Work Group of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. The cost-effectiveness of screening mammography beyond age 65 years: a systematic review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Ann Intern Med 2003 Nov 18;139(10):835-42. [Abstract]

Polsky D, Mandelblatt JS, Weeks JC, Venditti L, Hwang YT, Glick HA, Hadley J, Schulman KA. Economic evaluation of breast cancer treatment: considering the value of patient choice. J Clin Oncol 2003 Mar 15;21(6):1139-46. [Abstract]

Tan SYGL, van Oortmarssen GJ, Piersma N. Estimating parameters of a microsimulation model for breast cancer screening using the score function method. Ann Oper Res 2003 Mar;119(43):43-61. [Link]

Yabroff KR, Washington KS, Leader A, Neilson E, Mandelblatt J. Is the promise of cancer-screening programs being compromised? Quality of follow-up care after abnormal screening results. Med Care Res Rev 2003 Sep;60(3):294-331. [Abstract]

2002

Hanin L. Identification problem for stochastic models with application to carcinogenesis, cancer detection and radiation biology. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society 2002;7(3):177-89. [Link]

Hu P, Zelen M. Experimental design issues for the early detection of disease: novel designs. Biostatistics 2002 Sep;3(3):299-313. [Abstract]

Lee SJ, Zelen M. Statistical models for screening: planning public health programs. Cancer Treat Res 2002;113:19-36. [Abstract]

Mariotto A, Feuer EJ, Harlan LC, Wun LM, Johnson KA, Abrams J. Trends in use of adjuvant multi-agent chemotherapy and tamoxifen for breast cancer in the United States: 1975-1999. J Natl Cancer Inst 2002 Nov 6;94(21):1626-34. [Abstract]

Parmigiani G, Skates S, Zelen M. Modeling and optimization in early detection programs with a single exam. Biometrics 2002 Mar;58(1):30-6. [Abstract]

Zelen M, Lee SJ. Models and the early detection of disease: methodological considerations. Cancer Treat Res 2002;113:1-18. [Abstract]

2001

Bartoszyński R, Edler L, Hanin L, Kopp-Schneider A, Pavlova L, Tsodikov A, Zorin A, Yakovlev AY. Modeling cancer detection: tumor size as a source of information on unobservable stages of carcinogenesis. Math Biosci 2001 Jun;171(2):113-42. [Abstract]

Hanin LG, Tsodikov AD, Yakovlev AY. Optimal schedules of cancer surveillance and tumor size at detection. Math Comp Model 2001;33(12):1419-30. [Link]

Saha S, Hoerger TJ, Pignone MP, Teutsch SM, Helfand M, Mandelblatt JS, Cost Work Group Third US Preventive Services Task Force. The art and science of incorporating cost effectiveness into evidence-based recommendations for clinical preventive services. Am J Prev Med 2001 Apr;20(3 Suppl):36-43. [Abstract]

Shen Y, Wu D, Zelen M. Testing the independence of two diagnostic tests. Biometrics 2001 Dec;57(4):1009-17. [Abstract]

Shen Y, Zelen M. Screening sensitivity and sojourn time from breast cancer early detection clinical trials: mammograms and physical examinations. J Clin Oncol 2001 Aug 1;19(15):3490-9. [Abstract]

Yabroff KR, O'Malley A, Mangan P, Mandelblatt J. Inreach and outreach interventions to improve mammography use. J Am Med Womens Assoc (1972) 2001 Fall;56(4):166-73, 188. [Abstract]

Colorectal

2016

Joseph DA, Meester RG, Zauber AG, Manninen DL, Winges L, Dong FB, Peaker B, van Ballegooijen M. Colorectal cancer screening: Estimated future colonoscopy need and current volume and capacity. Cancer 2016 Aug 15;122(16):2479-86. Epub 2016 May 20. [Abstract]

Knudsen AB, Zauber AG, Rutter CM, Naber SK, Doria-Rose VP, Pabiniak C, Johanson C, Fischer SE, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Kuntz KM. Estimation of Benefits, Burden, and Harms of Colorectal Cancer Screening Strategies: Modeling Study for the US Preventive Services Task Force. JAMA 2016 Jun 21;315(23):2595-609. [Abstract]

Meester RG, Zauber AG, Doubeni CA, Jensen CD, Quinn VP, Helfand M, Dominitz JA, Levin TR, Corley DA, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. Consequences of Increasing Time to Colonoscopy Examination After Positive Result From Fecal Colorectal Cancer Screening Test. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2016 Oct;14(10):1445-1451.e8. Epub 2016 May 19. [Abstract]

Rutter CM, Knudsen AB, Marsh TL, Doria-Rose VP, Johnson E, Pabiniak C, Kuntz KM, van Ballegooijen M, Zauber AG, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. Validation of Models Used to Inform Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines: Accuracy and Implications. Med Decis Making 2016 Jul;36(5):604-14. Epub 2016 Jan 8. [Abstract]

van der Steen A, van Rosmalen J, Kroep S, van Hees F, Steyerberg EW, de Koning HJ, van Ballegooijen M, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. Calibrating Parameters for Microsimulation Disease Models: A Review and Comparison of Different Goodness-of-Fit Criteria. Med Decis Making 2016 Jul;36(5):652-65. Epub 2016 Mar 8. [Abstract]

2015

Goede SL, Kuntz KM, van Ballegooijen M, Knudsen AB, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Tangka FK, Howard DH, Chin J, Zauber AG, Seeff LC. Cost-Savings to Medicare From Pre-Medicare Colorectal Cancer Screening. Med Care 2015 Jul;53(7):630-8. [Abstract]

Goede SL, Rabeneck L, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Zauber AG, Paszat LF, Hoch JS, Yong JH, van Hees F, Tinmouth J, van Ballegooijen M. The impact of stratifying by family history in colorectal cancer screening programs. Int J Cancer 2015 Sep 1;137(5):1119-27. Epub 2015 Feb 20. [Abstract]

Haug U, Knudsen AB, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Kuntz KM. Development of new non-invasive tests for colorectal cancer screening: the relevance of information on adenoma detection. Int J Cancer 2015 Jun 15;136(12):2864-74. Epub 2014 Dec 3. [Abstract]

Henrikson NB, Webber EM, Goddard KA, Scrol A, Piper M, Williams MS, Zallen DT, Calonge N, Ganiats TG, Janssens AC, Zauber A, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M, Whitlock EP. Family history and the natural history of colorectal cancer: systematic review. Genet Med 2015 Sep;17(9):702-12. Epub 2015 Jan 15. [Abstract]

Jalal H, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Kuntz KM. Computing Expected Value of Partial Sample Information from Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Using Linear Regression Metamodeling. Med Decis Making 2015 Jul;35(5):584-95. Epub 2015 Apr 3. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Goede SL, Ma J, Xiau-Cheng W, Pawlish K, van Ballegooijen M, Jemal A. State disparities in colorectal cancer rates: Contributions of risk factors, screening, and survival differences. Cancer 2015 Oct 15;121(20):3676-83. Epub 2015 Jul 6. [Abstract]

Meester RG, Doubeni CA, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Goede SL, Levin TR, Quinn VP, Ballegooijen Mv, Corley DA, Zauber AG. Colorectal cancer deaths attributable to nonuse of screening in the United States. Ann Epidemiol 2015 Mar;25(3):208-213.e1. Epub 2014 Dec 5. [Abstract]

Meester RG, Doubeni CA, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Jensen CD, van der Meulen MP, Levin TR, Quinn VP, Schottinger JE, Zauber AG, Corley DA, van Ballegooijen M. Variation in Adenoma Detection Rate and the Lifetime Benefits and Cost of Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Microsimulation Model. JAMA 2015 Jun 16;313(23):2349-58. [Abstract]

Meester RG, Doubeni CA, Zauber AG, Goede SL, Levin TR, Corley DA, Jemal A, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. Public health impact of achieving 80% colorectal cancer screening rates in the United States by 2018. Cancer 2015 Jul 1;121(13):2281-5. Epub 2015 Mar 12. [Abstract]

Rabeneck L, Horton S, Zauber AG, Earle C. Colorectal Cancer. In: Gelband H, Jha P, Sankaranarayanan R, Horton S, editors. Disease Control Priorities. Third Edition. Washington, DC: The World Bank; 2015. p. 101-120. [Link]

van der Steen A, Knudsen AB, van Hees F, Walter GP, Berger FG, Daguise VG, Kuntz KM, Zauber AG, van Ballegooijen M, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. Optimal colorectal cancer screening in states' low-income, uninsured populations—the case of South Carolina. Health Serv Res 2015 Jun;50(3):768-89. Epub 2014 Oct 16. [Abstract]

van Hees F, Saini SD, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Vijan S, Meester RG, de Koning HJ, Zauber AG, van Ballegooijen M. Personalizing colonoscopy screening for elderly individuals based on screening history, cancer risk, and comorbidity status could increase cost effectiveness. Gastroenterology 2015 Nov;149(6):1425-37. Epub 2015 Aug 4. [Abstract]

van Hees F, Zauber AG, van Veldhuizen H, Heijnen ML, Penning C, de Koning HJ, van Ballegooijen M, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. The value of models in informing resource allocation in colorectal cancer screening: the case of The Netherlands. Gut 2015 Dec;64(12):1985-97. Epub 2015 Jun 10. [Abstract]

Zauber AG. The impact of screening on colorectal cancer mortality and incidence: has it really made a difference? Dig Dis Sci 2015 Mar;60(3):681-91. Epub 2015 Mar 5. [Abstract]

2014

Cenin DR, St John DJ, Ledger MJ, Slevin T, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. Optimising the expansion of the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program. Med J Aust 2014 Oct 20;201(8):456-61. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Gulati R, Mariotto AB, Schechter CB, de Carvalho TM, Knudsen AB, van Ravesteyn NT, Heijnsdijk EA, Pabiniak C, van Ballegooijen M, Rutter CM, Kuntz KM, Feuer EJ, Etzioni R, de Koning HJ, Zauber AG, Mandelblatt JS. Personalizing age of cancer screening cessation based on comorbid conditions: model estimates of harms and benefits. Ann Intern Med 2014 Jul 15;161(2):104-12. [Abstract]

Saini SD, van Hees F, Vijan S. Smarter screening for cancer: possibilities and challenges of personalization. JAMA 2014 Dec 3;312(21):2211-2. [Abstract]

van Hees F, Habbema JD, Meester RG, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M, Zauber AG. Should colorectal cancer screening be considered in elderly persons without previous screening? A cost-effectiveness analysis. Ann Intern Med 2014 Jun 3;160(11):750-9. [Abstract]

van Hees F, Zauber AG, Klabunde CN, Goede SL, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M. The appropriateness of more intensive colonoscopy screening than recommended in Medicare beneficiaries: a modeling study. JAMA Intern Med 2014 Oct;174(10):1568-76. [Abstract]

2013

Cho H, Klabunde CN, Yabroff KR, Wang Z, Meekins A, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Mariotto AB. Comorbidity-adjusted life expectancy: a new tool to inform recommendations for optimal screening strategies. Ann Intern Med 2013 Nov 19;159(10):667-76. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Durand-Zaleski I, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. Evaluation of new technologies for cancer control based on population trends in disease incidence and mortality. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2013;2013(46):117-23. [Abstract]

Goede SL, van Roon AH, Reijerink JC, van Vuuren AJ, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Habbema JD, Kuipers EJ, van Leerdam ME, van Ballegooijen M. Cost-effectiveness of one versus two sample faecal immunochemical testing for colorectal cancer screening. Gut 2013 May;62(5):727-34. Epub 2012 Apr 5. [Abstract]

Hubbard RA, Johnson E, Hsia R, Rutter CM. The cumulative risk of false-positive fecal occult blood test after 10 years of colorectal cancer screening. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2013 Sep;22(9):1612-9. Epub 2013 Jul 18. [Abstract]

O'Mahony JF, van Rosmalen J, Zauber AG, van Ballegooijen M. Multicohort models in cost-effectiveness analysis: why aggregating estimates over multiple cohorts can hide useful information. Med Decis Making 2013 Apr;33(3):407-14. Epub 2012 Aug 27. [Abstract]

Rutter CM, Johnson EA, Feuer EJ, Knudsen AB, Kuntz KM, Schrag D. Secular trends in colon and rectal cancer relative survival. J Natl Cancer Inst 2013 Dec 4;105(23):1806-13. Epub 2013 Oct 30. [Abstract]

Wang YC, Graubard BI, Rosenberg MA, Kuntz KM, Zauber AG, Kahle L, Schechter CB, Feuer EJ. Derivation of background mortality by smoking and obesity in cancer simulation models. Med Decis Making 2013 Feb;33(2):176-97. Epub 2012 Nov 6. [Abstract]

Wernli KJ, Rutter CM, Dachman AH, Zafar HM. Suspected extracolonic neoplasms detected on CT colonography: literature review and possible outcomes. Acad Radiol 2013 Jun;20(6):667-74. Epub 2013 Mar 1. [Abstract]

2012

Haug U, Knudsen AB, Kuntz KM. How should individuals with a false-positive fecal occult blood test for colorectal cancer be managed? A decision analysis. Int J Cancer 2012 Nov 1;131(9):2094-102. Epub 2012 Mar 29. [Abstract]

Knudsen AB, Hur C, Gazelle GS, Schrag D, McFarland EG, Kuntz KM. Rescreening of persons with a negative colonoscopy result: results from a microsimulation model. Ann Intern Med 2012 Nov 6;157(9):611-20. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Kuntz KM, Knudsen AB, van Ballegooijen M, Zauber AG, Jemal A. Contribution of screening and survival differences to racial disparities in colorectal cancer rates. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2012 May;21(5):728-36. Epub 2012 Apr 18. [Abstract]

Rutter CM, Johnson E, Miglioretti DL, Mandelson MT, Inadomi J, Buist DS. Adverse events after screening and follow-up colonoscopy. Cancer Causes Control 2012 Feb;23(2):289-96. Epub 2011 Nov 22. [Abstract]

Zauber AG, Winawer SJ, O'Brien MJ, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M, Hankey BF, Shi W, Bond JH, Schapiro M, Panish JF, Stewart ET, Waye JD. Colonoscopic polypectomy and long-term prevention of colorectal-cancer deaths. N Engl J Med 2012 Feb 23;366(8):687-96. [Abstract]

Zheng W, Rutter CM. Estimated mean sojourn time associated with hemoccult SENSA for detection of proximal and distal colorectal cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2012 Oct;21(10):1722-30. Epub 2012 Aug 21. [Abstract]

2011

Berrington de González A, Kim KP, Knudsen AB, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Rutter CM, Smith-Bindman R, Yee J, Kuntz KM, van Ballegooijen M, Zauber AG, Berg CD. Radiation-related cancer risks from CT colonography screening: a risk-benefit analysis. AJR Am J Roentgenol 2011 Apr;196(4):816-23. [Abstract]

Bradley CJ, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Yabroff KR, Dahman B, Mariotto A, Feuer EJ, Brown ML. Productivity savings from colorectal cancer prevention and control strategies. Am J Prev Med 2011 Aug;41(2):e5-e14. [Abstract]

Haug U, Knudsen AB, Brenner H, Kuntz KM. Is fecal occult blood testing more sensitive for left- versus right-sided colorectal neoplasia? A systematic literature review. Expert Rev Mol Diagn 2011 Jul;11(6):605-16. [Abstract]

Haug U, Kuntz KM, Knudsen AB, Hundt S, Brenner H. Sensitivity of immunochemical faecal occult blood testing for detecting left- vs right-sided colorectal neoplasia. Br J Cancer 2011 May 24;104(11):1779-85. Epub 2011 May 10. [Abstract]

Kuntz KM, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Rutter CM, Knudsen AB, van Ballegooijen M, Savarino JE, Feuer EJ, Zauber AG. A systematic comparison of microsimulation models of colorectal cancer: the role of assumptions about adenoma progression. Med Decis Making 2011 Jul-Aug;31(4):530-9. Epub 2011 Jun 14. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Knudsen AB, Brenner H. Cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. Epidemiol Rev 2011 Jul;33(1):88-100. Epub 2011 Jun 1. [Abstract]

Naishadham D, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Siegel R, Cokkinides V, Jemal A. State disparities in colorectal cancer mortality patterns in the United States. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2011 Jul;20(7):1296-302. [Abstract]

Rutter CM, Knudsen AB, Pandharipande PV. Computer disease simulation models: integrating evidence for health policy. Acad Radiol 2011 Sep;18(9):1077-86. Epub 2011 Mar 23. [Abstract]

Rutter CM, Miglioretti DL, Savarino JE. Evaluating risk factor assumptions: a simulation-based approach. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak 2011 Sep 7;11:55. [Abstract]

Rutter CM, Zaslavsky AM, Feuer EJ. Dynamic microsimulation models for health outcomes: a review. Med Decis Making 2011 Jan-Feb;31(1):10-8. Epub 2010 May 18. [Abstract]

Stock C, Knudsen AB, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Haug U, Brenner H. Colorectal cancer mortality prevented by use and attributable to nonuse of colonoscopy. Gastrointest Endosc 2011 Mar;73(3):435-443.e5. [Abstract]

van Ballegooijen M, Rutter CM, Knudsen AB, Zauber AG, Savarino JE, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Boer R, Feuer EJ, Habbema JD, Kuntz KM. Clarifying differences in natural history between models of screening: the case of colorectal cancer. Med Decis Making 2011 Jul-Aug;31(4):540-9. Epub 2011 Jun 14. [Abstract]

Vanness DJ, Knudsen AB, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Rutter CM, Gareen IF, Herman BA, Kuntz KM, Zauber AG, van Ballegooijen M, Feuer EJ, Chen MH, Johnson CD. Comparative economic evaluation of data from the ACRIN National CT Colonography Trial with three cancer intervention and surveillance modeling network microsimulations. Radiology 2011 Nov;261(2):487-98. Epub 2011 Aug 3. [Abstract]

Wilschut JA, Hol L, Dekker E, Jansen JB, Van Leerdam ME, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Kuipers EJ, Habbema JD, Van Ballegooijen M. Cost-effectiveness analysis of a quantitative immunochemical test for colorectal cancer screening. Gastroenterology 2011 Nov;141(5):1648-55.e1. Epub 2011 Jul 22. [Abstract]

Wilschut JA, Steyerberg EW, van Leerdam ME, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Habbema JD, van Ballegooijen M. How much colonoscopy screening should be recommended to individuals with various degrees of family history of colorectal cancer? Cancer 2011 Sep 15;117(18):4166-74. Epub 2011 Mar 8. [Abstract]

2010

Edwards BK, Ward E, Kohler BA, Eheman C, Zauber AG, Anderson RN, Jemal A, Schymura MJ, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Seeff LC, van Ballegooijen M, Goede SL, Ries LA. Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1975-2006, featuring colorectal cancer trends and impact of interventions (risk factors, screening, and treatment) to reduce future rates. Cancer 2010 Feb 1;116(3):544-73. [Abstract]

Knudsen AB, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Rutter CM, Savarino JE, van Ballegooijen M, Kuntz KM, Zauber AG. Cost-effectiveness of computed tomographic colonography screening for colorectal cancer in the medicare population. J Natl Cancer Inst 2010 Aug 18;102(16):1238-52. Epub 2010 Jul 27. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Knudsen AB, Brenner H. Cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening - an overview. Best Pract Res Clin Gastroenterol 2010 Aug;24(4):439-49. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Kuntz KM, Knudsen AB, Wilschut JA, Zauber AG, van Ballegooijen M. Stool DNA testing to screen for colorectal cancer in the Medicare population: a cost-effectiveness analysis. Ann Intern Med 2010 Sep 21;153(6):368-77. [Abstract]

Rutter CM, Savarino JE. An evidence-based microsimulation model for colorectal cancer: validation and application. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2010 Aug;19(8):1992-2002. Epub 2010 Jul 20. [Abstract]

van Ballegooijen M, Boer R, Zauber AG. Simulation of colorectal cancer screening: what we do and do not know and does it matter. Best Pract Res Clin Gastroenterol 2010 Aug;24(4):427-37. [Abstract]

Zauber AG. Cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy. Gastrointest Endosc Clin N Am 2010 Oct;20(4):751-70. [Abstract]

Zauber AG, van Ballegooijen M, Petitti D, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations: age to end screening misunderstood. Dis Colon Rectum 2010 Oct;53(10):1453; author reply 1453. [Abstract]

2009

Bentley TG, Weinstein MC, Kuntz KM. Effects of categorizing continuous variables in decision-analytic models. Med Decis Making 2009 Sep-Oct;29(5):549-56. Epub 2009 Jul 13. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. Effects of Colorectal Cancer Screening on Population Health - a modeling assessment. PhD thesis for Department of Public Health, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, the Netherlands. 2009 Apr.

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M, Boer R, Zauber A, Habbema JD. A novel hypothesis on the sensitivity of the fecal occult blood test: Results of a joint analysis of 3 randomized controlled trials. Cancer 2009 Jun 1;115(11):2410-9. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M, Zauber AG, Boer R, Wilschut J, Habbema JD. At what costs will screening with CT colonography be competitive? A cost-effectiveness approach. Int J Cancer 2009 Mar 1;124(5):1161-8. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M, Zauber AG, Boer R, Wilschut J, Winawer SJ, Habbema JD. Individualizing colonoscopy screening by sex and race. Gastrointest Endosc 2009 Jul;70(1):96-108, 108.e1-24. Epub 2009 May 24. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M, Zauber AG, Habbema JD, Kuipers EJ. Effect of rising chemotherapy costs on the cost savings of colorectal cancer screening. J Natl Cancer Inst 2009 Oct 21;101(20):1412-22. Epub 2009 Sep 24. [Abstract]

Rutter CM, Miglioretti DL, Savarino JE. Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models. J Am Stat Assoc 2009 Dec 1;104(488):1338-1350. [Abstract]

Zauber AG, Knudsen AB, Rutter CM, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Savarino JE, van Ballegooijen M, Kuntz KM. Cost-effectiveness of CT Colonography to screen for colorectal cancer. 2009 Jan 22. Available at http://www.cms.gov/Medicare/Coverage/DeterminationProcess/downloads/id58TA.pdf. [Link]

2008

Miglioretti DL, Rutter CM, Bradford SC, Zauber AG, Kessler LG, Feuer EJ, Grossman DC. Improvement in the diagnostic evaluation of a positive fecal occult blood test in an integrated health care organization. Med Care 2008 Sep;46(9 Suppl 1):S91-6. [Abstract]

Zauber AG, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Knudsen AB, Wilschut J, van Ballegooijen M, Kuntz KM. Evaluating test strategies for colorectal cancer screening: a decision analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Ann Intern Med 2008 Nov 4;149(9):659-69. Epub 2008 Oct 6. [Abstract]

2007

Rutter CM, Yu O, Miglioretti DL. A hierarchical non-homogenous Poisson model for meta-analysis of adenoma counts. Stat Med 2007 Jan 15;26(1):98-109. [Abstract]

Wang YC, Colditz GA, Kuntz KM. Forecasting the obesity epidemic in the aging U.S. population. Obesity (Silver Spring) 2007 Nov;15(11):2855-65. [Abstract]

Zauber AG, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Wilschut J, Knudsen AB, van Ballegooijen M, Kuntz KM. Cost-effectiveness of DNA stool testing to screen for colorectal cancer: Report to AHRQ and CMS from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) for MISCAN and SimCRC Models. 2007 Dec 20. Available at http://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/details/technology-assessments-details.aspx?TAId=52. [Link]

2006

Bentley TG, Willett WC, Weinstein MC, Kuntz KM. Population-level changes in folate intake by age, gender, and race/ethnicity after folic acid fortification. Am J Public Health 2006 Nov;96(11):2040-7. Epub 2006 Oct 3. [Abstract]

Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M, Schrag D, Boer R, Winawer SJ, Habbema JD, Zauber AG. How much can current interventions reduce colorectal cancer mortality in the U.S.? Mortality projections for scenarios of risk-factor modification, screening, and treatment. Cancer 2006 Oct 1;107(7):1624-33. [Abstract]

2005

Knudsen AB. Explaining secular trends in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality with an empirically-calibrated microsimulation model [Ph.D. dissertation]. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University; 2005.

2003

van Ballegooijen M, Habbema JDF, Boer R, Zauber AG, Brown ML. Report to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality: a comparison of the cost-effectiveness of fecal occult blood tests with different test characteristics in the context of annual screening in the Medicare population. 2003 Aug. Available at http://www.cms.gov/medicare-coverage-database/details/technology-assessments-details.aspx?TAId=20. [Link]

Esophagus

2016

Curtius K, Wong CJ, Hazelton WD, Kaz AM, Chak A, Willis JE, Grady WM, Luebeck EG. A Molecular Clock Infers Heterogeneous Tissue Age Among Patients with Barrett's Esophagus. PLoS Comput Biol 2016 May 11;12(5):e1004919. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004919. eCollection 2016 May. [Abstract]

2015

Curtius K, Hazelton WD, Jeon J, Luebeck EG. A Multiscale Model Evaluates Screening for Neoplasia in Barrett's Esophagus. PLoS Comput Biol 2015 May 22;11(5):e1004272. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004272. eCollection 2015 May. [Abstract]

Hazelton WD, Curtius K, Inadomi JM, Vaughan TL, Meza R, Rubenstein JH, Hur C, Luebeck EG. The Role of Gastroesophageal Reflux and Other Factors during Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2015 Jul;24(7):1012-23. Epub 2015 Apr 30. [Abstract]

Hur C, Choi SE, Kong CY, Wang GQ, Xu H, Polydorides AD, Xue LY, Perzan KE, Tramontano AC, Richards-Kortum RR, Anandasabapathy S. High-resolution microendoscopy for esophageal cancer screening in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis. World J Gastroenterol 2015 May 14;21(18):5513-23. [Abstract]

Inadomi JM. Cost considerations in implementing a screening and surveillance strategy for Barrett's oesophagus. Best Pract Res Clin Gastroenterol 2015 Feb;29(1):51-63. Epub 2014 Dec 18. [Abstract]

Kroep S, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Rubenstein JH, de Koning HJ, Meester R, Inadomi JM, van Ballegooijen M. An Accurate Cancer Incidence in Barrett's Esophagus: A Best Estimate Using Published Data and Modeling. Gastroenterology 2015 Sep;149(3):577-85.e4; quiz e14-5. Epub 2015 Apr 29. [Abstract]

Kroep S, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van der Steen A, Inadomi JM, van Ballegooijen M. The Impact of Uncertainty in Barrett's Esophagus Progression Rates on Hypothetical Screening and Treatment Decisions. Med Decis Making 2015 Aug;35(6):726-33. Epub 2014 Oct 2. [Abstract]

2014

Choi SE, Perzan KE, Tramontano AC, Kong CY, Hur C. Statins and aspirin for chemoprevention in Barrett's esophagus: results of a cost-effectiveness analysis. Cancer Prev Res (Phila) 2014 Mar;7(3):341-50. Epub 2013 Dec 31. [Abstract]

Kong CY, Kroep S, Curtius K, Hazelton WD, Jeon J, Meza R, Heberle CR, Miller MC, Choi SE, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, van Ballegooijen M, Feuer EJ, Inadomi JM, Hur C, Luebeck EG. Exploring the recent trend in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality using comparative simulation modeling. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2014 Jun;23(6):997-1006. Epub 2014 Apr 1. [Abstract]

Kroep S, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Rubenstein JH, Lemmens VE, van Heijningen EB, Aragonés N, van Ballegooijen M, Inadomi JM. Comparing trends in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and lifestyle factors between the United States, Spain, and the Netherlands. Am J Gastroenterol 2014 Mar;109(3):336-43; quiz 335, 344. Epub 2013 Dec 17. [Abstract]

Yasuda K, Choi SE, Nishioka NS, Rattner DW, Puricelli WP, Tramontano AC, Kitano S, Hur C. Incidence and predictors of adenocarcinoma following endoscopic ablation of Barrett's esophagus. Dig Dis Sci 2014 Jul;59(7):1560-6. Epub 2014 Jan 7. [Abstract]

2013

Hur C, Miller M, Kong CY, Dowling EC, Nattinger KJ, Dunn M, Feuer EJ. Trends in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality. Cancer 2013 Mar 15;119(6):1149-58. Epub 2012 Dec 11. [Abstract]

Luebeck EG, Curtius K, Jeon J, Hazelton WD. Impact of tumor progression on cancer incidence curves. Cancer Res 2013 Feb 1;73(3):1086-96. Epub 2012 Oct 10. [Abstract]

2012

Choi SE, Hur C. Screening and surveillance for Barrett's esophagus: current issues and future directions. Curr Opin Gastroenterol 2012 Jul;28(4):377-81. [Abstract]

Hur C, Choi SE, Rubenstein JH, Kong CY, Nishioka NS, Provenzale DT, Inadomi JM. The cost effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's esophagus. Gastroenterology 2012 Sep;143(3):567-75. Epub 2012 May 21. [Abstract]

Omer ZB, Ananthakrishnan AN, Nattinger KJ, Cole EB, Lin JJ, Kong CY, Hur C. Aspirin protects against Barrett's esophagus in a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2012 Jul;10(7):722-7. Epub 2012 Mar 15. [Abstract]

2011

Hazelton WD, Luebeck EG. Biomarker-based early cancer detection: is it achievable? Sci Transl Med 2011 Nov 16;3(109):109fs9. [Abstract]

Kong CY, Nattinger KJ, Hayeck TJ, Omer ZB, Wang YC, Spechler SJ, McMahon PM, Gazelle GS, Hur C. The impact of obesity on the rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence: estimates from a disease simulation model. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2011 Nov;20(11):2450-6. Epub 2011 Sep 19. [Abstract]

2010

Hayeck TJ, Kong CY, Spechler SJ, Gazelle GS, Hur C. The prevalence of Barrett's esophagus in the US: estimates from a simulation model confirmed by SEER data. Dis Esophagus 2010 Aug;23(6):451-7. Epub 2010 Mar 26. [Abstract]

Hur C, Hayeck TJ, Yeh JM, Richards EM, Spechler SJ, Gazelle GS, Kong CY. Development, calibration, and validation of a U.S. white male population-based simulation model of esophageal adenocarcinoma. PLoS One 2010 Mar 1;5(3):e9483. [Abstract]

Lung

2014

de Koning HJ, Meza R, Plevritis SK, ten Haaf K, Munshi VN, Jeon J, Erdogan SA, Kong CY, Han SS, van Rosmalen J, Choi SE, Pinsky PF, Berrington de Gonzalez A, Berg CD, Black WC, Tammemägi MC, Hazelton WD, Feuer EJ, McMahon PM. Benefits and harms of computed tomography lung cancer screening strategies: a comparative modeling study for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Ann Intern Med 2014 Mar 4;160(5):311-20. [Abstract]

Holford TR, Meza R, McKay LA, Clarke L, Racine B, Meza R, Land S, Jeon J, Feuer EJ. Patterns of birth cohort-specific smoking histories, 1965-2009. Am J Prev Med 2014;46(2):e31-7. [Resources]

Holford TR, Meza R, Warner KE, Meernik C, Jeon J, Moolgavkar SH, Levy DT. Tobacco control and the reduction in smoking-related premature deaths in the United States, 1964-2012. JAMA 2014 Jan 8;311(2):164-71. [Abstract] [Resources]

2013

Currie LM, Blackman K, Clancy L, Levy DT. The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Ireland using the IrelandSS simulation model. Tob Control 2013 May;22(e1):e25-32. Epub 2012 May 26. [Abstract]

Goldwasser DL, Kimmel M. Small median tumor diameter at cure threshold (<20 mm) among aggressive non-small cell lung cancers in male smokers predicts both chest X-ray and CT screening outcomes in a novel simulation framework. Int J Cancer 2013 Jan 1;132(1):189-97. Epub 2012 May 21. [Abstract]

Graham AL, Chang Y, Fang Y, Cobb NK, Tinkelman DS, Niaura RS, Abrams DB, Mandelblatt JS. Cost-effectiveness of internet and telephone treatment for smoking cessation: an economic evaluation of The iQUITT Study. Tob Control 2013 Nov;22(6):e11. Epub 2012 Sep 25. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Blackman K, Currie LM, Mons U. Germany SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on future smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in Germany. Nicotine Tob Res 2013 Feb;15(2):465-73. Epub 2012 Aug 1. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Currie L, Clancy L. Tobacco control policy in the UK: blueprint for the rest of Europe? Eur J Public Health 2013 Apr;23(2):201-6. Epub 2012 Jul 23. [Abstract]

Luebeck EG, Curtius K, Jeon J, Hazelton WD. Impact of tumor progression on cancer incidence curves. Cancer Res 2013 Feb 1;73(3):1086-96. Epub 2012 Oct 10. [Abstract]

Sussman S, Levy D, Lich KH, Cené CW, Kim MM, Rohrbach LA, Chaloupka FJ. Comparing effects of tobacco use prevention modalities: need for complex system models. Tob Induc Dis 2013 Jan 22;11(1):2. [Abstract]

Tramontano AC, Cipriano LE, Kong CY, Shepard JA, Lanuti M, Gazelle GS, McMahon PM. Microsimulation model predicts survival benefit of radiofrequency ablation and stereotactic body radiotherapy versus radiotherapy for treating inoperable stage I non-small cell lung cancer. AJR Am J Roentgenol 2013 May;200(5):1020-7. [Abstract]

Wang YC, Graubard BI, Rosenberg MA, Kuntz KM, Zauber AG, Kahle L, Schechter CB, Feuer EJ. Derivation of background mortality by smoking and obesity in cancer simulation models. Med Decis Making 2013 Feb;33(2):176-97. Epub 2012 Nov 6. [Abstract]

2012

Carreras G, Gorini G, Gallus S, Iannucci L, Levy DT. Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Italy over the next three decades. Eur J Public Health 2012 Oct;22(5):699-704. Epub 2011 Sep 5. [Abstract]

Feuer EJ, Moolgavkar SH, Levy DT, Kimmel M, Clarke LD. The Impact of Tobacco Smoking on U.S. Lung Cancer Mortality (1975-2000): Collective Results from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). Risk Anal 2012 Aug 7;32. (S1).

Bloch M, Backinger CL, Compton WM, Conway K. Standing on the threshold of change. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S1-5. [Abstract]

Feuer EJ, Levy DT, McCarthy WJ. Chapter 1:The impact of the reduction in tobacco smoking on U.S. lung cancer mortality, 1975-2000: an introduction to the problem. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S6-S13. [Abstract]

Anderson CM, Burns DM, Dodd KW, Feuer EJ. Chapter 2: Birth-cohort-specific estimates of smoking behaviors for the U.S. population. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S14-24. [Abstract] [Resources]

Rosenberg MA, Feuer EJ, Yu B, Sun J, Henley SJ, Shanks TG, Anderson CM, McMahon PM, Thun MJ, Burns DM. Chapter 3: Cohort life tables by smoking status, removing lung cancer as a cause of death. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S25-38. [Abstract] [Resources]

Holford TR, Clark L. Chapter 4: Development of the counterfactual smoking histories used to assess the effects of tobacco control. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S39-50. [Abstract]

Jeon J, Meza R, Krapcho M, Clarke LD, Byrne J, Levy DT. Chapter 5: Actual and counterfactual smoking prevalence rates in the U.S. population via microsimulation. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S51-68. [Abstract]

McCarthy WJ, Meza R, Jeon J, Moolgavkar SH. Chapter 6: Lung cancer in never smokers: epidemiology and risk prediction models. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S69-84. [Abstract]

Schultz FW, Boer R, de Koning HJ. Chapter 7: Description of MISCAN-lung, the Erasmus MC Lung Cancer microsimulation model for evaluating cancer control interventions. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S85-98. [Abstract]

Hazelton WD, Jeon J, Meza R, Moolgavkar SH. Chapter 8: The FHCRC lung cancer model. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S99-S116. [Abstract]

McMahon PM, Kong CY, Johnson BE, Weinstein MC, Weeks JC, Tramontano AC, Cipriano LE, Bouzan C, Gazelle GS. Chapter 9: The MGH-HMS lung cancer policy model: tobacco control versus screening. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S117-24. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Blackman K, Zaloshnja E. Chapter 10: A macro-model of smoking and lung cancer: examining aggregate trends in lung cancer rates using the CPS-I and CPS-II and two-stage clonal expansion models. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S125-41. [Abstract]

Foy M, Deng L, Spitz M, Gorlova O, Kimmel M. Chapter 11: Rice-MD Anderson lung cancer model. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S142-50. [Abstract]

Holford TR, Ebisu K, McKay L, Oh C, Zheng T. Chapter 12: Yale lung cancer model. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S151-65. [Abstract]

McMahon PM, Hazelton WD, Kimmel M, Clarke LD. Chapter 13: CISNET lung models: comparison of model assumptions and model structures. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S166-78. [Abstract]

Holford TR, Levy DT. Chapter 14: Comparing the adequacy of carcinogenesis models in estimating U.S. population rates for lung cancer mortality. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S179-89. [Abstract]

Boer R, Moolgavkar SH, Levy DT. Chapter 15: Impact of tobacco control on lung cancer mortality in the United States over the period 1975-2000--summary and limitations. Risk Anal 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S190-201. [Abstract]

Hazelton WD, Goodman G, Rom WN, Tockman M, Thornquist M, Moolgavkar S, Weissfeld JL, Feng Z. Longitudinal multistage model for lung cancer incidence, mortality, and CT detected indolent and aggressive cancers. Math Biosci 2012 Nov;240(1):20-34. Epub 2012 Jun 15. [Abstract]

Katanoda K, Levy DT, Nakamura M, Hagimoto A, Oshima A. Modeling the effect of disseminating brief intervention for smoking cessation at medical facilities in Japan: a simulation study. Cancer Causes Control 2012 Jun;23(6):929-39. Epub 2012 Apr 25. [Abstract]

Kong CY, Lee JM, McMahon PM, Lowry KP, Omer ZB, Eisenberg JD, Pandharipande PV, Gazelle GS. Using radiation risk models in cancer screening simulations: important assumptions and effects on outcome projections. Radiology 2012 Mar;262(3):977-84. [Abstract]

Levy D, de Almeida LM, Szklo A. The Brazil SimSmoke policy simulation model: the effect of strong tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in a middle income nation. PLoS Med 2012;9(11):e1001336. Epub 2012 Nov 6. [Abstract]

Levy D, Gallus S, Blackman K, Carreras G, La Vecchia C, Gorini G. Italy SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking attributable deaths in Italy. BMC Public Health 2012 Aug 29;12:709. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Blackman K, Currie LM, Levy J, Clancy L. SimSmokeFinn: how far can tobacco control policies move Finland toward tobacco-free 2040 goals? Scand J Public Health 2012 Aug;40(6):544-52. Epub 2012 Aug 16. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Boyle RG, Abrams DB. The role of public policies in reducing smoking: the Minnesota SimSmoke tobacco policy model. Am J Prev Med 2012 Nov;43(5 Suppl 3):S179-86. [Abstract]

Moolgavkar SH, Holford TR, Levy DT, Kong CY, Foy M, Clarke L, Jeon J, Hazelton WD, Meza R, Schultz F, McCarthy W, Boer R, Gorlova O, Gazelle GS, Kimmel M, McMahon PM, de Koning HJ, Feuer EJ. Impact of reduced tobacco smoking on lung cancer mortality in the United States during 1975-2000. J Natl Cancer Inst 2012 Apr 4;104(7):541-8. Epub 2012 Mar 14. [Abstract] [Resources]

Nagelhout GE, Levy DT, Blackman K, Currie L, Clancy L, Willemsen MC. The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings from the Netherlands SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model. Addiction 2012 Feb;107(2):407-16. Epub 2011 Sep 26. [Abstract]

2011

Foy M, Spitz MR, Kimmel M, Gorlova OY. A smoking-based carcinogenesis model for lung cancer risk prediction. Int J Cancer 2011 Oct 15;129(8):1907-13. Epub 2011 Mar 29. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Pearson JL, Villanti AC, Blackman K, Vallone DM, Niaura RS, Abrams DB. Modeling the future effects of a menthol ban on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the United States. Am J Public Health 2011 Jul;101(7):1236-40. Epub 2011 May 12. [Abstract]

McMahon PM, Kong CY, Bouzan C, Weinstein MC, Cipriano LE, Tramontano AC, Johnson BE, Weeks JC, Gazelle GS. Cost-effectiveness of computed tomography screening for lung cancer in the United States. J Thorac Oncol 2011 Nov;6(11):1841-8. [Abstract]

Shi L, Tian H, McCarthy WJ, Berman B, Wu S, Boer R. Exploring the uncertainties of early detection results: model-based interpretation of mayo lung project. BMC Cancer 2011 Mar 7;11:92. [Abstract]

2010

Abrams DB, Graham AL, Levy DT, Mabry PL, Orleans CT. Boosting population quits through evidence-based cessation treatment and policy. Am J Prev Med 2010 Mar;38(3 Suppl):S351-63. [Abstract]

Goldwasser DL, Kimmel M. Modeling excess lung cancer risk among screened arm participants in the Mayo Lung Project. Cancer 2010 Jan 1;116(1):122-31. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Cho SI, Kim YM, Park S, Suh MK, Kam S. SimSmoke model evaluation of the effect of tobacco control policies in Korea: the unknown success story. Am J Public Health 2010 Jul;100(7):1267-73. Epub 2010 May 13. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Graham AL, Mabry PL, Abrams DB, Orleans CT. Modeling the impact of smoking-cessation treatment policies on quit rates. Am J Prev Med 2010 Mar;38(3 Suppl):S364-72. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Mabry PL, Graham AL, Orleans CT, Abrams DB. Reaching Healthy People 2010 by 2013: A SimSmoke simulation. Am J Prev Med 2010 Mar;38(3 Suppl):S373-81. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Mabry PL, Graham AL, Orleans CT, Abrams DB. Exploring scenarios to dramatically reduce smoking prevalence: a simulation model of the three-part cessation process. Am J Public Health 2010 Jul;100(7):1253-9. Epub 2010 May 13. [Abstract]

Tauras JA, Levy D, Chaloupka FJ, Villanti A, Niaura RS, Vallone D, Abrams DB. Menthol and non-menthol smoking: the impact of prices and smoke-free air laws. Addiction 2010 Dec;105 Suppl 1:115-23. [Abstract]

Zaloshnja E, Ross H, Levy DT. The impact of tobacco control policies in Albania. Tob Control 2010 Dec;19(6):463-8. Epub 2010 Aug 2. [Abstract]

2009

Deng L, Kimmel M, Foy M, Spitz M, Wei Q, Gorlova O. Estimation of the effects of smoking and DNA repair capacity on coefficients of a carcinogenesis model for lung cancer. Int J Cancer 2009 May 1;124(9):2152-8. [Abstract]

Zeller M, Hatsukami D, Strategic Dialogue on Tobacco Harm Reduction Group. The Strategic Dialogue on Tobacco Harm Reduction: a vision and blueprint for action in the US. Tob Control 2009 Aug;18(4):324-32. Epub 2009 Feb 24. [Abstract]

2008

Levy DT, Tworek C, Hahn EJ, Davis RE. The Kentucky SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model: reaching Healthy People 2010 goals through policy change. South Med J 2008 May;101(5):503-7. [Abstract]

McMahon PM, Kong CY, Johnson BE, Weinstein MC, Weeks JC, Kuntz KM, Shepard JA, Swensen SJ, Gazelle GS. Estimating long-term effectiveness of lung cancer screening in the Mayo CT screening study. Radiology 2008 Jul;248(1):278-87. Epub 2008 May 5. [Abstract]

McMahon PM, Kong CY, Weinstein MC, Tramontano AC, Cipriano LE, Johnson BE, Weeks JC, Gazelle GS. Adopting helical CT screening for lung cancer: potential health consequences during a 15-year period. Cancer 2008 Dec 15;113(12):3440-9. [Abstract]

Meza R, Hazelton WD, Colditz GA, Moolgavkar SH. Analysis of lung cancer incidence in the Nurses' Health and the Health Professionals' Follow-Up Studies using a multistage carcinogenesis model. Cancer Causes Control 2008 Apr;19(3):317-28. Epub 2007 Dec 6. [Abstract]

2007

Levy DT. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model. In: Bonnie RJ, Stratton K, Wallace RB, editors. Committee on Reducing Tobacco Use: Strategies, Barriers, and Consequences, Ending the Tobacco Problem: A Blueprint for the Nation. Washington, DC: Institute of Medicine; 2007. p. 578-98.

Levy DT, Hyland A, Higbee C, Remer L, Compton C. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: results from the California tobacco policy simulation model. Health Policy 2007 Jul;82(2):167-85. Epub 2006 Oct 19. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Mumford EA, Gerlowski DA. Examining trends in quantity smoked. Nicotine Tob Res 2007 Dec;9(12):1287-96. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Ross H, Powell L, Bauer JE, Lee HR. The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths caused by smoking in Arizona: results from the Arizona tobacco policy simulation model. J Public Health Manag Pract 2007 Jan-Feb;13(1):59-67. [Abstract]

Marciniak-Czochra A, Kimmel M. Modeling of early lung cancer progression: influence of growth factor production and cooperation between partially transformed cells. Math Models Methods Appl Sci 2007;17(Suppl):1693-719.

2006

Holford TR. Approaches to fitting age-period-cohort models with unequal intervals. Stat Med 2006 Mar 30;25(6):977-93. [Abstract]

Kimmel M, Gorlova OY, Henschke CI. Chapter 10. Modeling Lung Cancer Screening. In: Edler L and Kitsos C, editor. Recent Advances in Quantitative Methods in Cancer and Human Health Risk Assessment. 2006 Mar 17. p. 161-76. [Link]

Levy DT, Bauer JE, Lee HR. Simulation modeling and tobacco control: creating more robust public health policies. Am J Public Health 2006 Mar;96(3):494-8. Epub 2006 Jan 31. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Mumford EA, Compton C. Tobacco control policies and smoking in a population of low education women, 1992-2002. J Epidemiol Community Health 2006 Sep;60 Suppl 2:20-6. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Mumford EA, Cummings KM, Gilpin EA, Giovino GA, Hyland A, Sweanor D, Warner KE, Compton C. The potential impact of a low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco product on cigarette smoking in the United States: estimates of a panel of experts. Addict Behav 2006 Jul;31(7):1190-200. Epub 2005 Oct 26. [Abstract]

2005

Clements MS, Armstrong BK, Moolgavkar SH. Lung cancer rate predictions using generalized additive models. Biostatistics 2005 Oct;6(4):576-89. Epub 2005 Apr 28. [Abstract]

Gorlova O, Peng B, Yankelevitz D, Henschke C, Kimmel M. Estimating the growth rates of primary lung tumours from samples with missing measurements. Stat Med 2005 Apr 15;24(7):1117-34. [Abstract]

Hazelton WD, Clements MS, Moolgavkar SH. Multistage carcinogenesis and lung cancer mortality in three cohorts. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2005 May;14(5):1171-81. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Nikolayev L, Mumford E. Recent trends in smoking and the role of public policies: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. Addiction 2005 Oct;100(10):1526-36. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Nikolayev L, Mumford E, Compton C. The Healthy People 2010 smoking prevalence and tobacco control objectives: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model (United States). Cancer Causes Control 2005 May;16(4):359-71. [Abstract]

2004

Feuer EJ, Boer R, Holford TR. Developing and comparing population models for the early detection of cancer. Stat Meth Med Res Dec 2004;13(6):419-20.

Levy DT, Mumford EA, Cummings KM, Gilpin EA, Giovino G, Hyland A, Sweanor D, Warner KE. The relative risks of a low-nitrosamine smokeless tobacco product compared with smoking cigarettes: estimates of a panel of experts. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2004 Dec;13(12):2035-42. [Abstract]

2003

Gorlova OY, Amos C, Henschke C, Lei L, Spitz M, Wei Q, Wu X, Kimmel M. Genetic susceptibility for lung cancer: interactions with gender and smoking history and impact on early detection policies. Hum Hered 2003;56(1-3):139-45. [Abstract]

2002

Gregori G, Hanin L, Luebeck G, Moolgavkar S, Yakovlev A. Testing goodness of fit for stochastic models of carcinogenesis. Math Biosci 2002 Jan;175(1):13-29. [Abstract]

Levy DT, Chaloupka F, Gitchell J, Mendez D, Warner KE. The use of simulation models for the surveillance, justification and understanding of tobacco control policies. Health Care Manag Sci 2002 Apr;5(2):113-20. [Abstract]

Prostate

2017

de Carvalho TM, Heijnsdijk EA, de Koning HJ. Estimating the risks and benefits of active surveillance protocols for prostate cancer: a microsimulation study. BJU Int 2017 Apr;119(4):560-566. Epub 2016 Jun 26. [Abstract]

Gulati R, Albertsen PC. Insights from the PLCO trial about prostate cancer screening. Cancer 2017 Feb 15;123(4):546-548. Epub 2016 Dec 1. [Abstract]

Gulati R, Cheng HH, Lange PH, Nelson PS, Etzioni R. Screening Men at Increased Risk for Prostate Cancer Diagnosis: Model Estimates of Benefits and Harms. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2017 Feb;26(2):222-227. Epub 2016 Oct 14. [Abstract]

Gulati R, Etzioni R. A Matched Cohort Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in Younger Men in Sweden. Eur Urol 2017 Jan;71(1):53-54. Epub 2016 Apr 16. [Abstract]

2016

Carlsson SV, de Carvalho TM, Roobol MJ, Hugosson J, Auvinen A, Kwiatkowski M, Villers A, Zappa M, Nelen V, Páez A, Eastham JA, Lilja H, de Koning HJ, Vickers AJ, Heijnsdijk EA. Estimating the harms and benefits of prostate cancer screening as used in common practice versus recommended good practice: A microsimulation screening analysis. Cancer 2016 Nov 15;122(21):3386-3393. Epub 2016 Jul 26. [Abstract]

de Carvalho TM, Heijnsdijk EA, de Koning HJ. Estimating the individual benefit of immediate treatment or active surveillance for prostate cancer after screen-detection in older (65+) men. Int J Cancer 2016 May 15;138(10):2522-8. Epub 2016 Feb 1. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Gulati R. Recent Trends in PSA Testing and Prostate Cancer Incidence: A Look at Context. JAMA Oncol 2016 Jul 1;2(7):955-6. [Abstract]

Gulati R, Feuer EJ, Etzioni R. Conditions for Valid Empirical Estimates of Cancer Overdiagnosis in Randomized Trials and Population Studies. Am J Epidemiol 2016 Jul 15;184(2):140-7. Epub 2016 Jun 29. [Abstract]

Rice JD, Tsodikov A. Semiparametric time-to-event modeling in the presence of a latent progression event. Biometrics 2016 Aug 24. Epub 2016 Aug 24. [Abstract]

Roth JA, Gulati R, Gore JL, Cooperberg MR, Etzioni R. Economic Analysis of Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and Selective Treatment Strategies. JAMA Oncol 2016 Jul 1;2(7):890-8. [Abstract]

Shen J, Wang L, Taylor JM. Estimation of the optimal regime in treatment of prostate cancer recurrence from observational data using flexible weighting models. Biometrics 2016 Nov 28. Epub 2016 Nov 28. [Abstract]

2015

Birnbaum JK, Feng Z, Gulati R, Fan J, Lotan Y, Wei JT, Etzioni R. Projecting Benefits and Harms of Novel Cancer Screening Biomarkers: A Study of PCA3 and Prostate Cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2015 Apr;24(4):677-82. Epub 2015 Jan 22. [Abstract]

de Carvalho TM, Heijnsdijk EA, de Koning HJ. Screening for prostate cancer in the US? Reduce the harms and keep the benefit. Int J Cancer 2015 Apr 1;136(7):1600-7. Epub 2014 Sep 1. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Gulati R. Recognizing the Limitations of Cancer Overdiagnosis Studies: A First Step Towards Overcoming Them. J Natl Cancer Inst 2015 Nov 18;108. (3). Print 2016 Mar. [Abstract]

Ha J, Tsodikov A. Semiparametric estimation in the proportional hazard model accounting for a misclassified cause of failure. Biometrics 2015 Dec;71(4):941-9. Epub 2015 Jun 23. [Abstract]

2014

Etzioni R, Gulati R. Oversimplifying overdiagnosis. J Gen Intern Med 2014 Sep;29(9):1218-20. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Gulati R. RE: A model too far. J Natl Cancer Inst 2014 Apr;106(4):dju058. Epub 2014 Mar 21. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Xia J, Hubbard R, Weiss NS, Gulati R. A reality check for overdiagnosis estimates associated with breast cancer screening. J Natl Cancer Inst 2014 Oct 31;106. (12). Print 2014 Dec. [Abstract]

Etzioni RD, Thompson IM. What do the screening trials really tell us and where do we go from here? Urol Clin North Am 2014 May;41(2):223-8. Epub 2014 Feb 19. [Abstract]

Gulati R, Inoue LY, Gore JL, Katcher J, Etzioni R. Individualized estimates of overdiagnosis in screen-detected prostate cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst 2014 Feb;106(2):djt367. Epub 2014 Jan 7. [Abstract]

Gulati R, Tsodikov A, Etzioni R, Hunter-Merrill RA, Gore JL, Mariotto AB, Cooperberg MR. Expected population impacts of discontinued prostate-specific antigen screening. Cancer 2014 Nov 15;120(22):3519-26. Epub 2014 Jul 25. [Abstract]

Heijnsdijk EA, de Carvalho TM, Auvinen A, Zappa M, Nelen V, Kwiatkowski M, Villers A, Páez A, Moss SM, Tammela TL, Recker F, Denis L, Carlsson SV, Wever EM, Bangma CH, Schröder FH, Roobol MJ, Hugosson J, de Koning HJ. Cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening: a simulation study based on ERSPC data. J Natl Cancer Inst 2014 Dec 13;107(1):366. Print 2015 Jan. [Abstract]

Hu C, Tsodikov A. Joint modeling approach for semicompeting risks data with missing nonterminal event status. Lifetime Data Anal 2014 Oct;20(4):563-83. Epub 2014 Jan 16. [Abstract]

Hu C, Tsodikov A. Semiparametric regression analysis for time-to-event marked endpoints in cancer studies. Biostatistics 2014 Jul;15(3):513-25. Epub 2013 Dec 29. [Abstract]

Inoue LY, Trock BJ, Partin AW, Carter HB, Etzioni R. Modeling grade progression in an active surveillance study. Stat Med 2014 Mar 15;33(6):930-9. Epub 2013 Oct 9. [Abstract]

Lansdorp-Vogelaar I, Gulati R, Mariotto AB, Schechter CB, de Carvalho TM, Knudsen AB, van Ravesteyn NT, Heijnsdijk EA, Pabiniak C, van Ballegooijen M, Rutter CM, Kuntz KM, Feuer EJ, Etzioni R, de Koning HJ, Zauber AG, Mandelblatt JS. Personalizing age of cancer screening cessation based on comorbid conditions: model estimates of harms and benefits. Ann Intern Med 2014 Jul 15;161(2):104-12. [Abstract]

Loeb S, Bjurlin MA, Nicholson J, Tammela TL, Penson DF, Carter HB, Carroll P, Etzioni R. Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of prostate cancer. Eur Urol 2014 Jun;65(6):1046-55. Epub 2014 Jan 9. [Abstract]

Pataky R, Gulati R, Etzioni R, Black P, Chi KN, Coldman AJ, Pickles T, Tyldesley S, Peacock S. Is prostate cancer screening cost-effective? A microsimulation model of prostate-specific antigen-based screening for British Columbia, Canada. Int J Cancer 2014 Aug 15;135(4):939-47. Epub 2014 Feb 4. [Abstract]

Salinas CA, Tsodikov A, Ishak-Howard M, Cooney KA. Prostate cancer in young men: an important clinical entity. Nat Rev Urol 2014 Jun;11(6):317-23. Epub 2014 May 13. [Abstract]

Vickers AJ, Sjoberg DD, Ulmert D, Vertosick E, Roobol MJ, Thompson I, Heijnsdijk EA, De Koning H, Atoria-Swartz C, Scardino PT, Lilja H. Empirical estimates of prostate cancer overdiagnosis by age and prostate-specific antigen. BMC Med 2014 Feb 11;12:26. [Abstract]

Xia J, Trock BJ, Gulati R, Mallinger L, Cooperberg MR, Carroll PR, Carter HB, Etzioni R. Overdetection of recurrence after radical prostatectomy: estimates based on patient and tumor characteristics. Clin Cancer Res 2014 Oct 15;20(20):5302-10. [Abstract]

2013

Etzioni R, Durand-Zaleski I, Lansdorp-Vogelaar I. Evaluation of new technologies for cancer control based on population trends in disease incidence and mortality. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2013;2013(46):117-23. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Gulati R. Response: Reading between the lines of cancer screening trials: using modeling to understand the evidence. Med Care 2013 Apr;51(4):304-6. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Gulati R, Cooperberg MR, Penson DM, Weiss NS, Thompson IM. Limitations of basing screening policies on screening trials: The US Preventive Services Task Force and Prostate Cancer Screening. Med Care 2013 Apr;51(4):295-300. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Gulati R, Mallinger L, Mandelblatt J. Influence of study features and methods on overdiagnosis estimates in breast and prostate cancer screening. Ann Intern Med 2013 Jun 4;158(11):831-8. [Abstract]

Etzioni RD. Review of evidence concerning PSA screening for prostate cancer has limitations as basis for policy development. Evid Based Med 2013 Apr;18(2):75-6. Epub 2012 Jul 7. [Abstract]

Gulati R, Gore JL, Etzioni R. Comparative effectiveness of alternative prostate-specific antigen--based prostate cancer screening strategies: model estimates of potential benefits and harms. Ann Intern Med 2013 Feb 5;158(3):145-53. [Abstract]

Inoue LY, Gulati R, Yu C, Kattan MW, Etzioni R. Deriving benefit of early detection from biomarker-based prognostic models. Biostatistics 2013 Jan;14(1):15-27. Epub 2012 Jun 22. [Abstract]

Lee SY, Tsodikov A. Correcting the Results of the Wrong Model: Treatment Effects under Early Detection of Cancer. J Stat Theory Pract 2013 Apr 5;7(2):421-441. [Abstract]

Wever EM, Heijnsdijk EA, Draisma G, Bangma CH, Roobol MJ, Schröder FH, de Koning HJ. Treatment of local-regional prostate cancer detected by PSA screening: benefits and harms according to prognostic factors. Br J Cancer 2013 May 28;108(10):1971-7. Epub 2013 May 14. [Abstract]

Xia J, Gulati R, Au M, Gore JL, Lin DW, Etzioni R. Effects of screening on radical prostatectomy efficacy: the prostate cancer intervention versus observation trial. J Natl Cancer Inst 2013 Apr 17;105(8):546-50. Epub 2013 Feb 14. [Abstract]

2012

Etzioni R, Gulati R, Tsodikov A, Wever EM, Penson DF, Heijnsdijk EA, Katcher J, Draisma G, Feuer EJ, de Koning HJ, Mariotto AB. The prostate cancer conundrum revisited: treatment changes and prostate cancer mortality declines. Cancer 2012 Dec 1;118(23):5955-63. Epub 2012 May 17. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Mucci L, Chen S, Johansson JE, Fall K, Adami HO. Increasing use of radical prostatectomy for nonlethal prostate cancer in Sweden. Clin Cancer Res 2012 Dec 15;18(24):6742-7. Epub 2012 Aug 27. [Abstract]

Gulati R, Tsodikov A, Wever EM, Mariotto AB, Heijnsdijk EA, Katcher J, de Koning HJ, Etzioni R. The impact of PLCO control arm contamination on perceived PSA screening efficacy. Cancer Causes Control 2012 Jun;23(6):827-35. Epub 2012 Apr 10. [Abstract]

Ha J, Tsodikov A. Isotonic estimation of survival under a misattribution of cause of death. Lifetime Data Anal 2012 Jan;18(1):58-79. Epub 2011 Nov 18. [Abstract]

Xia J, Trock BJ, Cooperberg MR, Gulati R, Zeliadt SB, Gore JL, Lin DW, Carroll PR, Carter HB, Etzioni R. Prostate cancer mortality following active surveillance versus immediate radical prostatectomy. Clin Cancer Res 2012 Oct 1;18(19):5471-8. Epub 2012 Sep 24. [Abstract]

Zeliadt SB, Buist DS, Reid RJ, Grossman DC, Ma J, Etzioni R. Biopsy follow-up of prostate-specific antigen tests. Am J Prev Med 2012 Jan;42(1):37-43. [Abstract]

2011

Gulati R, Mariotto AB, Chen S, Gore JL, Etzioni R. Long-term projections of the harm-benefit trade-off in prostate cancer screening are more favorable than previous short-term estimates. J Clin Epidemiol 2011 Dec;64(12):1412-7. [Abstract]

Gulati R, Wever EM, Tsodikov A, Penson DF, Inoue LY, Katcher J, Lee SY, Heijnsdijk EA, Draisma G, de Koning HJ, Etzioni R. What if I don't treat my PSA-detected prostate cancer? Answers from three natural history models. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2011 May;20(5):740-50. [Abstract]

Wever EM, Draisma G, Heijnsdijk EA, de Koning HJ. How does early detection by screening affect disease progression? Modeling estimated benefits in prostate cancer screening. Med Decis Making 2011 Jul-Aug;31(4):550-8. Epub 2011 Mar 15. [Abstract]

2010

Gulati R, Inoue L, Katcher J, Hazelton W, Etzioni R. Calibrating disease progression models using population data: a critical precursor to policy development in cancer control. Biostatistics 2010 Oct;11(4):707-19. Epub 2010 Jun 7. [Abstract]

Wever EM, Draisma G, Heijnsdijk EA, Roobol MJ, Boer R, Otto SJ, de Koning HJ. Prostate-specific antigen screening in the United States vs in the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer-Rotterdam. J Natl Cancer Inst 2010 Mar 3;102(5):352-5. Epub 2010 Feb 8. [Abstract]

2009

Chefo S, Tsodikov A. Stage-specific cancer incidence: an artificially mixed multinomial logit model. Stat Med 2009 Jul 10;28(15):2054-76. [Abstract]

Draisma G, Etzioni R, Tsodikov A, Mariotto A, Wever E, Gulati R, Feuer E, de Koning H. Lead time and overdiagnosis in prostate-specific antigen screening: importance of methods and context. J Natl Cancer Inst 2009 Mar 18;101(6):374-83. Epub 2009 Mar 10. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Gulati R, Mariotto AB. Overview of US prostate cancer trends in the era of PSA screening. In: Ankerst DP, Tangen CM, Thompson IM, editors. Prostate Cancer Screening. 2nd. Humana Press; 2009. p. 3-14. (Current Clinical Urology)

Fesinmeyer MD, Gulati R, Zeliadt S, Weiss N, Kristal AR, Etzioni R. Effect of population trends in body mass index on prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the United States. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009 Mar;18(3):808-15. Epub 2009 Mar 3. [Abstract]

2008

Etzioni R, Feuer E. Studies of prostate-cancer mortality: caution advised. Lancet Oncol 2008 May;9(5):407-9. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Gulati R, Falcon S, Penson DF. Impact of PSA screening on the incidence of advanced stage prostate cancer in the United States: a surveillance modeling approach. Med Decis Making 2008 May-Jun;28(3):323-31. Epub 2008 Mar 4. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Tsodikov A, Mariotto A, Szabo A, Falcon S, Wegelin J, DiTommaso D, Karnofski K, Gulati R, Penson DF, Feuer E. Quantifying the role of PSA screening in the US prostate cancer mortality decline. Cancer Causes Control 2008 Mar;19(2):175-81. Epub 2007 Nov 20. [Abstract]

Hubbard RA, Inoue LY, Fann JR. Modeling nonhomogeneous Markov processes via time transformation. Biometrics 2008 Sep;64(3):843-50. Epub 2007 Nov 19. [Abstract]

Inoue LY, Etzioni R, Morrell C, Muller P. Modeling disease progression with longitudinal markers. J Am Stat Assoc 2008 Mar;103(481):259-70.

Telesca D, Etzioni R, Gulati R. Estimating lead time and overdiagnosis associated with PSA screening from prostate cancer incidence trends. Biometrics 2008 Mar;64(1):10-9. Epub 2007 May 14. [Abstract]

Tsodikov A, Chefo S. Generalized Self-Consistency: Multinomial logit model and Poisson likelihood. J Stat Plan Inference 2008;138(8):23802397. [Abstract]

2007

Inoue LY, Neira M, Nelson C, Gleave M, Etzioni R. Cluster-based network model for time-course gene expression data. Biostatistics 2007 Jul;8(3):507-25. Epub 2006 Sep 15. [Abstract]

Mariotto AB, Etzioni R, Krapcho M, Feuer EJ. Reconstructing PSA testing patterns between black and white men in the US from Medicare claims and the National Health Interview Survey. Cancer 2007 May 1;109(9):1877-86. [Abstract]

Tsodikov A, Garibotti G. Profile information matrix for nonlinear transformation models. Lifetime Data Anal 2007 Mar;13(1):139-59. [Abstract]

Zeliadt SB, Etzioni R, Ramsey SD, Penson DF, Potosky AL. Trends in treatment costs for localized prostate cancer: the healthy screenee effect. Med Care 2007 Feb;45(2):154-9. [Abstract]

2006

Draisma G, Postma R, Schröder FH, van der Kwast TH, de Koning HJ. Gleason score, age and screening: modeling dedifferentiation in prostate cancer. Int J Cancer 2006 Nov 15;119(10):2366-71. [Abstract]

Tsodikov A, Szabo A, Wegelin J. A population model of prostate cancer incidence. Stat Med 2006 Aug 30;25(16):2846-66. [Abstract]

Zeliadt SB, Potosky AL, Penson DF, Etzioni R. Survival benefit associated with adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy combined with radiotherapy for high- and low-risk patients with nonmetastatic prostate cancer. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 2006 Oct 1;66(2):395-402. Epub 2006 Aug 14. [Abstract]

2004

Broët P, Tsodikov A, De Rycke Y, Moreau T. Two-sample statistics for testing the equality of survival functions against improper semi-parametric accelerated failure time alternatives: an application to the analysis of a breast cancer clinical trial. Lifetime Data Anal 2004 Jun;10(2):103-20. [Abstract]

Feuer EJ, Boer R, Holford TR. Developing and comparing population models for the early detection of cancer. Stat Meth Med Res Dec 2004;13(6):419-20.

Feuer EJ, Etzioni R, Cronin KA, Mariotto A. The use of modeling to understand the impact of screening on U.S. mortality: examples from mammography and PSA testing. Stat Methods Med Res 2004 Dec;13(6):421-42. [Abstract]

Inoue LY, Etzioni R, Slate EH, Morrell C, Penson DF. Combining longitudinal studies of PSA. Biostatistics 2004 Jul;5(3):483-500. [Abstract]

Shaw PA, Etzioni R, Zeliadt SB, Mariotto A, Karnofski K, Penson DF, Weiss NS, Feuer EJ. An ecologic study of prostate-specific antigen screening and prostate cancer mortality in nine geographic areas of the United States. Am J Epidemiol 2004 Dec 1;160(11):1059-69. [Abstract]

Zeliadt SB, Potosky AL, Etzioni R, Ramsey SD, Penson DF. Racial disparity in primary and adjuvant treatment for nonmetastatic prostate cancer: SEER-Medicare trends 1991 to 1999. Urology 2004 Dec;64(6):1171-6. [Abstract]

2003

Tsodikov A. Semiparametric models: a generalized self-consistency approach. J R Stat Soc Series B Stat Methodol 2003 Aug 1;65(3):759-774. [Abstract]

Tsodikov AD, Ibrahim JG, Yakovlev AY. Estimating Cure Rates From Survival Data: An Alternative to Two-Component Mixture Models. J Am Stat Assoc 2003 Dec 1;98(464):1063-1078. [Abstract]

Zeliadt SB, Penson DF, Albertsen PC, Concato J, Etzioni RD. Race independently predicts prostate specific antigen testing frequency following a prostate carcinoma diagnosis. Cancer 2003 Aug 1;98(3):496-503. [Abstract]

2002

Etzioni R, Berry KM, Legler JM, Shaw P. Prostate-specific antigen testing in black and white men: an analysis of medicare claims from 1991-1998. Urology 2002 Feb;59(2):251-5. [Abstract]

Etzioni R, Penson DF, Legler JM, di Tommaso D, Boer R, Gann PH, Feuer EJ. Overdiagnosis due to prostate-specific antigen screening: lessons from U.S. prostate cancer incidence trends. J Natl Cancer Inst 2002 Jul 3;94(13):981-90. [Abstract]