Recent Highlights: Uterine

Unlike many other cancers, both the incidence and mortality have been increasing in recent years. To better understand the drivers of these trends, project the future burden of disease, and inform potential interventions, the CISNET Uterine Working Group conducted a comparative modeling analysis using three independent simulation models. All three models projected that uterine cancer incidence and mortality will increase substantially through 2050. Rising obesity prevalence and declining hysterectomy rates were identified as two key contributors to these trends.

This recently published analysis is the first comparative analysis using the three CISNET uterine cancer models, CU-UTMO, DU-CAM, and MUSIC. The models were developed independently but calibrated to the same population-based incidence and mortality data. Each model incorporates key drivers of uterine cancer trends, including obesity, hysterectomy, histologic subtype, and stage at diagnosis. Despite differences in model structure, the models showed strong agreement in reproducing observed incidence and mortality patterns and in projecting future disease burden.

The close agreement among the three models provides confidence in these projections. More broadly, this work establishes a common foundation for future comparative modeling analyses evaluating prevention, screening, early detection, and treatment strategies aimed at reducing the burden of uterine cancer incidence and mortality in US women.

Citation

Rouse KJ, Hazelton WD, Frotscher A, Chen L, Prest MT, Ferris JS, Xu X, Melamed A, Hur C, Heckman-Stoddard BM, Samimi G, Bickell NA, Layne TM, Blank SV, Elkin EB, Myers ER, Havrilesky LJ, Kong CY, Wright JD. Comparative Modeling of Recent and Projected Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Uterine Cancer. Obstet Gynecol 2026 Apr 1;147(4):585-595. Epub 2026 Feb 6. [Abstract]